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Wednesday, 11 November 15
VESSEL VALUES ARE DOWN BY AT LEAST 20% SINCE MID-AUGUST - INTERMODAL
 I had promised not to spend another broker’s insight focusing on the dry bulk side. However, the sale of the M/V Churchill Bulker (179,362 dwt, blt ‘11 HHI) to Diana for approximately $28.4m, brought us face to face with the harsh reality once again; values are down by at least 20% since mid-August.
What I found extremely interesting is a new rhetoric which is being created by seasoned professionals that, 7 years after the Lehman collapse, this is the first time we are experiencing a proper shipping crisis. Now that the dust from the financial crisis has settled, capital markets are showing resistance to worldwide political turbulence and financial institutions are nearing the end of their challenge named Basel III, our industry has no alibi in still blaming China or other developing economies for not continuing to outperform expectations. The pundits that still maintain their memories from the 80’s fresh are having a strong “Deja-vu” driven by an enormous order book. Low scrapping activity in 2H 2015 -when compared to current freight rates and pending regulatory reforms further underlines the issue.
But this is all known and extensively documented. Too much ink has been wasted in analyzing, if not dramatizing, the market situation across all sizes. Things are bleak but repeating it doesn’t help solve the problem. There must be a reaction trigger point and when it comes to asset values, that point should be connected to the replacement cost compare to the value of an existing asset; i.e. the moment that buying a modern vessel is a no-brainer because building a new one is uneconomical in every which way you look at it…
The same players recalled that during the bleakest of times, one could purchase a 5yr old vessel for 35-40% of its NB price. No matter how shocking that statement sounds, reading through the new format of our research team’s monthly report, one can easily realize we are not far off that reaction point. As Tier III regulations are applied on every contract being negotiated henceforth, we expect to see at least a 6 month period where even the keenest buyers will follow a “wait and see” tactic towards the new technologies, engines, etc. and NB cost will increase by almost 10% which will shift the curve to levels witnessed almost 30 years ago.
What happened back then?
Well, last time we saw such a discrepancy in NB costs compare to 5yr old values, there was significant disinvestment in NB’s over a prolonged period, which was further intensified by higher scrap volumes and the gradual implementation of a series of regulations, which raised the cost of maintenance and drove even more vessels out of the market.
Does it ring any bells?
By George Dermatis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Sunday, 22 November 15
INDONESIA TO INDIA FREIGHT RATES TO REMAIN DULL NEXT WEEK
COALspot.com: The BDI was down to historical lows closing at 498 points which is down by almost 95.77 per cent compared to 11,800 points in 2008.
...
Sunday, 22 November 15
INDIA COULD PROVIDE SILVER LINING FOR SHIPPING INDUSTRY - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The rise of India as a global player in the shipping market could be just a couple of years away, as the country has the potential to become a seco ...
Friday, 20 November 15
U.S. COAL PRODUCTION FOR THE WEEK ENDING NOVEMBER '14; NO CHANGE FROM LAST WEEK
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 16.5 million shor ...
Friday, 20 November 15
NO IMPROVEMENT SEEN IN NEAR-TERM COAL DEMAND; SWAPS CLOSE LOWER
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery Q1 2016 declined month on month and flat on week over week. Price of coal seen no improvements this ...
Friday, 20 November 15
CHANGING CRUDE SUPPLY TRENDS MAY HELP EUROPEAN REFINERS - FITCH RATINGS
COALspot.com: Changes in global oil supply trends, including high Russian production, the expected renewal of Iranian heavy crude exports and the p ...
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- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Australian Coal Association
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- The University of Queensland
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Planning Commission, India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
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