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Wednesday, 11 November 15
VESSEL VALUES ARE DOWN BY AT LEAST 20% SINCE MID-AUGUST - INTERMODAL
 I had promised not to spend another broker’s insight focusing on the dry bulk side. However, the sale of the M/V Churchill Bulker (179,362 dwt, blt ‘11 HHI) to Diana for approximately $28.4m, brought us face to face with the harsh reality once again; values are down by at least 20% since mid-August.
What I found extremely interesting is a new rhetoric which is being created by seasoned professionals that, 7 years after the Lehman collapse, this is the first time we are experiencing a proper shipping crisis. Now that the dust from the financial crisis has settled, capital markets are showing resistance to worldwide political turbulence and financial institutions are nearing the end of their challenge named Basel III, our industry has no alibi in still blaming China or other developing economies for not continuing to outperform expectations. The pundits that still maintain their memories from the 80’s fresh are having a strong “Deja-vu” driven by an enormous order book. Low scrapping activity in 2H 2015 -when compared to current freight rates and pending regulatory reforms further underlines the issue.
But this is all known and extensively documented. Too much ink has been wasted in analyzing, if not dramatizing, the market situation across all sizes. Things are bleak but repeating it doesn’t help solve the problem. There must be a reaction trigger point and when it comes to asset values, that point should be connected to the replacement cost compare to the value of an existing asset; i.e. the moment that buying a modern vessel is a no-brainer because building a new one is uneconomical in every which way you look at it…
The same players recalled that during the bleakest of times, one could purchase a 5yr old vessel for 35-40% of its NB price. No matter how shocking that statement sounds, reading through the new format of our research team’s monthly report, one can easily realize we are not far off that reaction point. As Tier III regulations are applied on every contract being negotiated henceforth, we expect to see at least a 6 month period where even the keenest buyers will follow a “wait and see” tactic towards the new technologies, engines, etc. and NB cost will increase by almost 10% which will shift the curve to levels witnessed almost 30 years ago.
What happened back then?
Well, last time we saw such a discrepancy in NB costs compare to 5yr old values, there was significant disinvestment in NB’s over a prolonged period, which was further intensified by higher scrap volumes and the gradual implementation of a series of regulations, which raised the cost of maintenance and drove even more vessels out of the market.
Does it ring any bells?
By George Dermatis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Tuesday, 24 November 15
COAL PRICES SET TO REMAIN UNDER PRESSURE UNTIL 2016 DUE TO OVER SUPPLY GLUT; H1 '16 COAL SWAPS DOWN 13% M-M
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q1’ 2016 delivery slid $5 per ton (12.05%) month over month to US$ 36.50 per ton. The s ...
Monday, 23 November 15
NEGATIVE 2016 OUTLOOK FOR WESTERN EUROPEAN STEEL - SAYS FITCH RATINGS
COALspot.com: European steel in 2016 are both negative for the sector and for issuer ratings.
This reflects our expectation that import levels ...
Monday, 23 November 15
DRY BULK MARKET: NET FLEET GROWTH IS SLOWING DOWN, AS SHIP OWNERS ARE LOOKING FOR WAYS TO ALLEVIATING MARKET MELTDOWN - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The dry bulk market has been in “meltdown” mode for a few weeks now, unable to find support and avoid the fall in historical lows. As s ...
Monday, 23 November 15
CS50 COAL INDEX CLOSED AT $40.27 PER TON; FELL 0.15% FROM LAST WEEK
COALspot.com: The 5700 GAR CS (i) coal index fell by US cents 3 per ton week over week on 20 November 2015. CS 57 (5700 GAR coal) index closed at U ...
Monday, 23 November 15
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS FALL FURTHER ON LOW DEMAND
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q1’ 2016 delivery declined US$ 6.75 (13.99%) per ton month over month.
A commodity swa ...
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- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Planning Commission, India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- White Energy Company Limited
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- The University of Queensland
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
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