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Wednesday, 11 November 15
VESSEL VALUES ARE DOWN BY AT LEAST 20% SINCE MID-AUGUST - INTERMODAL
 I had promised not to spend another broker’s insight focusing on the dry bulk side. However, the sale of the M/V Churchill Bulker (179,362 dwt, blt ‘11 HHI) to Diana for approximately $28.4m, brought us face to face with the harsh reality once again; values are down by at least 20% since mid-August.
What I found extremely interesting is a new rhetoric which is being created by seasoned professionals that, 7 years after the Lehman collapse, this is the first time we are experiencing a proper shipping crisis. Now that the dust from the financial crisis has settled, capital markets are showing resistance to worldwide political turbulence and financial institutions are nearing the end of their challenge named Basel III, our industry has no alibi in still blaming China or other developing economies for not continuing to outperform expectations. The pundits that still maintain their memories from the 80’s fresh are having a strong “Deja-vu” driven by an enormous order book. Low scrapping activity in 2H 2015 -when compared to current freight rates and pending regulatory reforms further underlines the issue.
But this is all known and extensively documented. Too much ink has been wasted in analyzing, if not dramatizing, the market situation across all sizes. Things are bleak but repeating it doesn’t help solve the problem. There must be a reaction trigger point and when it comes to asset values, that point should be connected to the replacement cost compare to the value of an existing asset; i.e. the moment that buying a modern vessel is a no-brainer because building a new one is uneconomical in every which way you look at it…
The same players recalled that during the bleakest of times, one could purchase a 5yr old vessel for 35-40% of its NB price. No matter how shocking that statement sounds, reading through the new format of our research team’s monthly report, one can easily realize we are not far off that reaction point. As Tier III regulations are applied on every contract being negotiated henceforth, we expect to see at least a 6 month period where even the keenest buyers will follow a “wait and see” tactic towards the new technologies, engines, etc. and NB cost will increase by almost 10% which will shift the curve to levels witnessed almost 30 years ago.
What happened back then?
Well, last time we saw such a discrepancy in NB costs compare to 5yr old values, there was significant disinvestment in NB’s over a prolonged period, which was further intensified by higher scrap volumes and the gradual implementation of a series of regulations, which raised the cost of maintenance and drove even more vessels out of the market.
Does it ring any bells?
By George Dermatis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Wednesday, 25 November 15
INDIA'S POWER GENERATORS FACE LOW, FALLING UTILISATION RATE - FITCH
COAlspot.com: Fitch Ratings says in a new report that the utilisation rate of India's thermal power generation capacity continued to decline in ...
Wednesday, 25 November 15
BIG CHINESE COPPER PROCESSORS DEFEND MARGINS THROUGH R&D, SAYS FITCH
Large Chinese copper processors are focusing on higher value-added products and investing in R&D to enhance their technical know-how to maintai ...
Wednesday, 25 November 15
BIMCO LAUNCHES ANTI-CORRUPTION CLAUSE FOR SHIPPING CONTRACTS WORLDWIDE
COALspot.com: BIMCO, is the world’s largest international shipping association, with 2,200 members in around 130 countries, has now launched ...
Wednesday, 25 November 15
TANKER MARKET INSIGHT - GEORGE VASTARDIS
We have already noticed obvious signs of activity mainly West of Suez, which are currently driving the clean MR market to higher levels. Over the p ...
Tuesday, 24 November 15
COAL SUPPLY PRESSURE PUTS INDONESIAN HBA IN FREE FALL
The coal industry is slowly recognizing that, the current coal price level is not a decrease in price, but a change in pricing to corresp ...
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- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- PTC India Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- White Energy Company Limited
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Planning Commission, India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
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