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Wednesday, 11 November 15
VESSEL VALUES ARE DOWN BY AT LEAST 20% SINCE MID-AUGUST - INTERMODAL
 I had promised not to spend another broker’s insight focusing on the dry bulk side. However, the sale of the M/V Churchill Bulker (179,362 dwt, blt ‘11 HHI) to Diana for approximately $28.4m, brought us face to face with the harsh reality once again; values are down by at least 20% since mid-August.
What I found extremely interesting is a new rhetoric which is being created by seasoned professionals that, 7 years after the Lehman collapse, this is the first time we are experiencing a proper shipping crisis. Now that the dust from the financial crisis has settled, capital markets are showing resistance to worldwide political turbulence and financial institutions are nearing the end of their challenge named Basel III, our industry has no alibi in still blaming China or other developing economies for not continuing to outperform expectations. The pundits that still maintain their memories from the 80’s fresh are having a strong “Deja-vu” driven by an enormous order book. Low scrapping activity in 2H 2015 -when compared to current freight rates and pending regulatory reforms further underlines the issue.
But this is all known and extensively documented. Too much ink has been wasted in analyzing, if not dramatizing, the market situation across all sizes. Things are bleak but repeating it doesn’t help solve the problem. There must be a reaction trigger point and when it comes to asset values, that point should be connected to the replacement cost compare to the value of an existing asset; i.e. the moment that buying a modern vessel is a no-brainer because building a new one is uneconomical in every which way you look at it…
The same players recalled that during the bleakest of times, one could purchase a 5yr old vessel for 35-40% of its NB price. No matter how shocking that statement sounds, reading through the new format of our research team’s monthly report, one can easily realize we are not far off that reaction point. As Tier III regulations are applied on every contract being negotiated henceforth, we expect to see at least a 6 month period where even the keenest buyers will follow a “wait and see” tactic towards the new technologies, engines, etc. and NB cost will increase by almost 10% which will shift the curve to levels witnessed almost 30 years ago.
What happened back then?
Well, last time we saw such a discrepancy in NB costs compare to 5yr old values, there was significant disinvestment in NB’s over a prolonged period, which was further intensified by higher scrap volumes and the gradual implementation of a series of regulations, which raised the cost of maintenance and drove even more vessels out of the market.
Does it ring any bells?
By George Dermatis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Friday, 27 November 15
INDONESIA COAL SWAPS: WEEK ENDING 20 NOVEMBER CLOSED HIGHER COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS WEEK
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for delivery Q1 2016 declined month on month and up on week over week. Coal prices seen slight improvements thi ...
Friday, 27 November 15
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAPS UP FROM LAST WEEK
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q1’ 2016 up week over week and month over month.
The Q1’ 2016 swa ...
Thursday, 26 November 15
ITALY'S STEAM COAL IMPORTS EXPECTED TO REACH 16 MILLION TONS AND COKING COAL IMPORTS TO AMOUNT TO 4 MILLION TONS - ASSOCARBONI
ASSOCARBONI LOOKS AT COAL FROM A DIFFERENT ANGLE
- “Coal has made huge steps towards environmental sustainability, making itself t ...
Thursday, 26 November 15
DRY BULK MARKET WILL REBOUND EVENTUALLY, BUT THINGS WILL BECOME EVEN WORSE BEFORE THEY IMPROVE SAYS SHIPBROKER - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
As the dry bulk market’s benchmark, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) reached an all-time late last week and has failed to rebound significantly eve ...
Thursday, 26 November 15
Q3'16 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP FALLS 27.5% SINCE 20 FEB 2015
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q1’ 2016 delivery slid $5 per ton (12.05%) month over month to US$ 36.50 per ton. The s ...
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- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
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