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Wednesday, 11 November 15
VESSEL VALUES ARE DOWN BY AT LEAST 20% SINCE MID-AUGUST - INTERMODAL
 I had promised not to spend another broker’s insight focusing on the dry bulk side. However, the sale of the M/V Churchill Bulker (179,362 dwt, blt ‘11 HHI) to Diana for approximately $28.4m, brought us face to face with the harsh reality once again; values are down by at least 20% since mid-August.
What I found extremely interesting is a new rhetoric which is being created by seasoned professionals that, 7 years after the Lehman collapse, this is the first time we are experiencing a proper shipping crisis. Now that the dust from the financial crisis has settled, capital markets are showing resistance to worldwide political turbulence and financial institutions are nearing the end of their challenge named Basel III, our industry has no alibi in still blaming China or other developing economies for not continuing to outperform expectations. The pundits that still maintain their memories from the 80’s fresh are having a strong “Deja-vu” driven by an enormous order book. Low scrapping activity in 2H 2015 -when compared to current freight rates and pending regulatory reforms further underlines the issue.
But this is all known and extensively documented. Too much ink has been wasted in analyzing, if not dramatizing, the market situation across all sizes. Things are bleak but repeating it doesn’t help solve the problem. There must be a reaction trigger point and when it comes to asset values, that point should be connected to the replacement cost compare to the value of an existing asset; i.e. the moment that buying a modern vessel is a no-brainer because building a new one is uneconomical in every which way you look at it…
The same players recalled that during the bleakest of times, one could purchase a 5yr old vessel for 35-40% of its NB price. No matter how shocking that statement sounds, reading through the new format of our research team’s monthly report, one can easily realize we are not far off that reaction point. As Tier III regulations are applied on every contract being negotiated henceforth, we expect to see at least a 6 month period where even the keenest buyers will follow a “wait and see” tactic towards the new technologies, engines, etc. and NB cost will increase by almost 10% which will shift the curve to levels witnessed almost 30 years ago.
What happened back then?
Well, last time we saw such a discrepancy in NB costs compare to 5yr old values, there was significant disinvestment in NB’s over a prolonged period, which was further intensified by higher scrap volumes and the gradual implementation of a series of regulations, which raised the cost of maintenance and drove even more vessels out of the market.
Does it ring any bells?
By George Dermatis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Monday, 14 December 15
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP IS STILL SLIDING
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q1’ 2016 delivery declined US$ 0.93(2.18%) per ton month over month.
A commodity swap ...
Sunday, 13 December 15
THE LOW VESSEL DEMANDS PUSHED DOWN BALTIC DRY INDEX FURTHER DOWN
COALspot.com: The low vessel demand across nearly all vessel sizes pushed the Baltic Exchange’s main sea freight index further down in this F ...
Sunday, 13 December 15
DRY BULK RATES KEEP ON FALLING AS LOW VESSEL DEMAND IS STILL THE NORM - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The dry bulk market nowadays is in an endless downward spiral, which as it turns out is unable to recover, at least as long as the current balance ...
Friday, 11 December 15
US COAL PRODUCTION UP 7.7% IN WEEK ENDED DECEMBER 5, 2015
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 16.1 million shor ...
Thursday, 10 December 15
LIENING CARGO - WHICH LIEN CLAUSE APPLIES TO THE BILL OF LADING? : WIKBORG REIN | HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
In a dry bulk market where a charterer is not paying freight or hire, its counterparty is often left to consider whether ...
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- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
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