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Wednesday, 11 November 15
VESSEL VALUES ARE DOWN BY AT LEAST 20% SINCE MID-AUGUST - INTERMODAL
 I had promised not to spend another broker’s insight focusing on the dry bulk side. However, the sale of the M/V Churchill Bulker (179,362 dwt, blt ‘11 HHI) to Diana for approximately $28.4m, brought us face to face with the harsh reality once again; values are down by at least 20% since mid-August.
What I found extremely interesting is a new rhetoric which is being created by seasoned professionals that, 7 years after the Lehman collapse, this is the first time we are experiencing a proper shipping crisis. Now that the dust from the financial crisis has settled, capital markets are showing resistance to worldwide political turbulence and financial institutions are nearing the end of their challenge named Basel III, our industry has no alibi in still blaming China or other developing economies for not continuing to outperform expectations. The pundits that still maintain their memories from the 80’s fresh are having a strong “Deja-vu” driven by an enormous order book. Low scrapping activity in 2H 2015 -when compared to current freight rates and pending regulatory reforms further underlines the issue.
But this is all known and extensively documented. Too much ink has been wasted in analyzing, if not dramatizing, the market situation across all sizes. Things are bleak but repeating it doesn’t help solve the problem. There must be a reaction trigger point and when it comes to asset values, that point should be connected to the replacement cost compare to the value of an existing asset; i.e. the moment that buying a modern vessel is a no-brainer because building a new one is uneconomical in every which way you look at it…
The same players recalled that during the bleakest of times, one could purchase a 5yr old vessel for 35-40% of its NB price. No matter how shocking that statement sounds, reading through the new format of our research team’s monthly report, one can easily realize we are not far off that reaction point. As Tier III regulations are applied on every contract being negotiated henceforth, we expect to see at least a 6 month period where even the keenest buyers will follow a “wait and see” tactic towards the new technologies, engines, etc. and NB cost will increase by almost 10% which will shift the curve to levels witnessed almost 30 years ago.
What happened back then?
Well, last time we saw such a discrepancy in NB costs compare to 5yr old values, there was significant disinvestment in NB’s over a prolonged period, which was further intensified by higher scrap volumes and the gradual implementation of a series of regulations, which raised the cost of maintenance and drove even more vessels out of the market.
Does it ring any bells?
By George Dermatis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Wednesday, 16 December 15
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAP SLUMP 5.5% FROM LAST MONTH
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q1’ 2016 decline month over month and week over week.
The Q1’ 2016 &nbs ...
Wednesday, 16 December 15
MARKET INSIGHT - KATERINA RESTIS
On Friday 4th of December the meeting of OPEC was held in Vienna, Austria. Since its last meeting, oil and product stock levels have continued to r ...
Tuesday, 15 December 15
THE GOVERNMENT DECLARED THERMAL COAL BENCHMARK PRICE CRASHING ONCE AGAIN
COALspot.com: Low coal demand and excess supplies sent Indonesian benchmark coal price down to below 2009 level. HBA has slumped by 1.69% mo ...
Tuesday, 15 December 15
API 5 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP FIRM W-W; WEAK M-M
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q1’ 2016 delivery slid $.13 per ton (0.35%) month over month to US$ 37.07 per ton. The swap w ...
Monday, 14 December 15
5000 GAR CS (I) COAL INDEX DECLINE US$ 0.04 PER TON W-O-W
COALspot.com: The 5000 GAR CS (i) coal index decline US$ 0.04 per ton (-0.10 %) week over week.
According to the CS (i) coal (system generated ...
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- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- White Energy Company Limited
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- MS Steel International - UAE
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
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