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Wednesday, 11 November 15
VESSEL VALUES ARE DOWN BY AT LEAST 20% SINCE MID-AUGUST - INTERMODAL
 I had promised not to spend another broker’s insight focusing on the dry bulk side. However, the sale of the M/V Churchill Bulker (179,362 dwt, blt ‘11 HHI) to Diana for approximately $28.4m, brought us face to face with the harsh reality once again; values are down by at least 20% since mid-August.
What I found extremely interesting is a new rhetoric which is being created by seasoned professionals that, 7 years after the Lehman collapse, this is the first time we are experiencing a proper shipping crisis. Now that the dust from the financial crisis has settled, capital markets are showing resistance to worldwide political turbulence and financial institutions are nearing the end of their challenge named Basel III, our industry has no alibi in still blaming China or other developing economies for not continuing to outperform expectations. The pundits that still maintain their memories from the 80’s fresh are having a strong “Deja-vu” driven by an enormous order book. Low scrapping activity in 2H 2015 -when compared to current freight rates and pending regulatory reforms further underlines the issue.
But this is all known and extensively documented. Too much ink has been wasted in analyzing, if not dramatizing, the market situation across all sizes. Things are bleak but repeating it doesn’t help solve the problem. There must be a reaction trigger point and when it comes to asset values, that point should be connected to the replacement cost compare to the value of an existing asset; i.e. the moment that buying a modern vessel is a no-brainer because building a new one is uneconomical in every which way you look at it…
The same players recalled that during the bleakest of times, one could purchase a 5yr old vessel for 35-40% of its NB price. No matter how shocking that statement sounds, reading through the new format of our research team’s monthly report, one can easily realize we are not far off that reaction point. As Tier III regulations are applied on every contract being negotiated henceforth, we expect to see at least a 6 month period where even the keenest buyers will follow a “wait and see” tactic towards the new technologies, engines, etc. and NB cost will increase by almost 10% which will shift the curve to levels witnessed almost 30 years ago.
What happened back then?
Well, last time we saw such a discrepancy in NB costs compare to 5yr old values, there was significant disinvestment in NB’s over a prolonged period, which was further intensified by higher scrap volumes and the gradual implementation of a series of regulations, which raised the cost of maintenance and drove even more vessels out of the market.
Does it ring any bells?
By George Dermatis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Tuesday, 08 December 15
Q1' 16 API 5 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP CLOSED AT $ 36.73 A TON; 1.73% HIGHER COMPARED TO Q3' 16 PRICE
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q1’ 2016 delivery slid $1.47 per ton (3.85%) month over month to US$ 36.73 per ton. The swap ...
Tuesday, 08 December 15
HOW TO MITIGATE LEGAL RISKS WHEN PURCHASING BUNKERS - LESSONS LEARNED FROM THE OW BUNKER COLLAPSE - THE SWEDISH CLUB
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
About a year has passed since OW Bunker & Trading A/S filed for bankruptcy. The collapse shows that there are signifi ...
Monday, 07 December 15
5000 GAR CS (I) COAL INDEX REMAIN THE SAME OVER LAST WEEK
COALspot.com: The 5000 GAR CS (i) coal index remain the same over last week.
According to the CS (i) coal (system generated) index, the CS 50 ...
Monday, 07 December 15
COAL DEMAND IN 2016 FAILS TO SUPPORT PRICES; CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS SEEN AT $US 42 A TON
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q1’ 2016 delivery declined US$ 1.70 (3.88%) per ton month over month.
A commodity swap ...
Sunday, 06 December 15
THE BDI DECLINED BY 3.09 PERCENT TO 563 POINTS ON 4 DECEMBER
COALspot.com: The BDI declined by 3.09 percent to 563 points on 4 December 2015.
The Cape index was also declined by 10.01 percent to 890 poin ...
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- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Australian Coal Association
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
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