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Wednesday, 11 November 15
VESSEL VALUES ARE DOWN BY AT LEAST 20% SINCE MID-AUGUST - INTERMODAL
 I had promised not to spend another broker’s insight focusing on the dry bulk side. However, the sale of the M/V Churchill Bulker (179,362 dwt, blt ‘11 HHI) to Diana for approximately $28.4m, brought us face to face with the harsh reality once again; values are down by at least 20% since mid-August.
What I found extremely interesting is a new rhetoric which is being created by seasoned professionals that, 7 years after the Lehman collapse, this is the first time we are experiencing a proper shipping crisis. Now that the dust from the financial crisis has settled, capital markets are showing resistance to worldwide political turbulence and financial institutions are nearing the end of their challenge named Basel III, our industry has no alibi in still blaming China or other developing economies for not continuing to outperform expectations. The pundits that still maintain their memories from the 80’s fresh are having a strong “Deja-vu” driven by an enormous order book. Low scrapping activity in 2H 2015 -when compared to current freight rates and pending regulatory reforms further underlines the issue.
But this is all known and extensively documented. Too much ink has been wasted in analyzing, if not dramatizing, the market situation across all sizes. Things are bleak but repeating it doesn’t help solve the problem. There must be a reaction trigger point and when it comes to asset values, that point should be connected to the replacement cost compare to the value of an existing asset; i.e. the moment that buying a modern vessel is a no-brainer because building a new one is uneconomical in every which way you look at it…
The same players recalled that during the bleakest of times, one could purchase a 5yr old vessel for 35-40% of its NB price. No matter how shocking that statement sounds, reading through the new format of our research team’s monthly report, one can easily realize we are not far off that reaction point. As Tier III regulations are applied on every contract being negotiated henceforth, we expect to see at least a 6 month period where even the keenest buyers will follow a “wait and see” tactic towards the new technologies, engines, etc. and NB cost will increase by almost 10% which will shift the curve to levels witnessed almost 30 years ago.
What happened back then?
Well, last time we saw such a discrepancy in NB costs compare to 5yr old values, there was significant disinvestment in NB’s over a prolonged period, which was further intensified by higher scrap volumes and the gradual implementation of a series of regulations, which raised the cost of maintenance and drove even more vessels out of the market.
Does it ring any bells?
By George Dermatis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Friday, 18 December 15
WHEN IS A MASTER ENTITLED TO REFUSE DAMAGED CARGO? A REMINDER - THE STANDARD CLUB
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
A master’s authority to clause bills of lading issued by or on his behalf can sometimes become the cause of disagreeme ...
Friday, 18 December 15
CHINA GROWTH SHOCK TO HIT ENERGY, SHIPPING, STEEL MOST - FITCH
Energy, shipping and steel would be the hardest-hit sectors in Asia-Pacific (APAC) in the event of a sharp slowdown in Chinese growth, says Fitch R ...
Friday, 18 December 15
WEEKLY U.S. COAL PRODUCTION REMAINS FLAT ACROSS ALL BASINS
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 16.1 million shor ...
Thursday, 17 December 15
THE LOW DEMAND AND EXCESS COAL OUTPUT, KEEP THE FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAPS UNDER PRESSURE
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery Q1 2016 rose month on month and decline slightly week over week. For the week ended December 11, 20 ...
Thursday, 17 December 15
GLADSTONE PORT COAL RECORD LOOMING, EXPORTS UP 12% - GLADSTONE OBSERVER
COAL exports from Gladstone's port have taken a leap, with more than seven million tonnes leaving the wharves in November.
That increase i ...
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- The University of Queensland
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- White Energy Company Limited
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Planning Commission, India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
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