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Wednesday, 11 November 15
VESSEL VALUES ARE DOWN BY AT LEAST 20% SINCE MID-AUGUST - INTERMODAL
 I had promised not to spend another broker’s insight focusing on the dry bulk side. However, the sale of the M/V Churchill Bulker (179,362 dwt, blt ‘11 HHI) to Diana for approximately $28.4m, brought us face to face with the harsh reality once again; values are down by at least 20% since mid-August.
What I found extremely interesting is a new rhetoric which is being created by seasoned professionals that, 7 years after the Lehman collapse, this is the first time we are experiencing a proper shipping crisis. Now that the dust from the financial crisis has settled, capital markets are showing resistance to worldwide political turbulence and financial institutions are nearing the end of their challenge named Basel III, our industry has no alibi in still blaming China or other developing economies for not continuing to outperform expectations. The pundits that still maintain their memories from the 80’s fresh are having a strong “Deja-vu” driven by an enormous order book. Low scrapping activity in 2H 2015 -when compared to current freight rates and pending regulatory reforms further underlines the issue.
But this is all known and extensively documented. Too much ink has been wasted in analyzing, if not dramatizing, the market situation across all sizes. Things are bleak but repeating it doesn’t help solve the problem. There must be a reaction trigger point and when it comes to asset values, that point should be connected to the replacement cost compare to the value of an existing asset; i.e. the moment that buying a modern vessel is a no-brainer because building a new one is uneconomical in every which way you look at it…
The same players recalled that during the bleakest of times, one could purchase a 5yr old vessel for 35-40% of its NB price. No matter how shocking that statement sounds, reading through the new format of our research team’s monthly report, one can easily realize we are not far off that reaction point. As Tier III regulations are applied on every contract being negotiated henceforth, we expect to see at least a 6 month period where even the keenest buyers will follow a “wait and see” tactic towards the new technologies, engines, etc. and NB cost will increase by almost 10% which will shift the curve to levels witnessed almost 30 years ago.
What happened back then?
Well, last time we saw such a discrepancy in NB costs compare to 5yr old values, there was significant disinvestment in NB’s over a prolonged period, which was further intensified by higher scrap volumes and the gradual implementation of a series of regulations, which raised the cost of maintenance and drove even more vessels out of the market.
Does it ring any bells?
By George Dermatis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Thursday, 10 December 15
CANADIAN MINER TECK ANNOUNCES LNG HAUL TRUCK PILOT PROJECT
Teck Resources Limited is piloting the use of liquefied natural gas (LNG) as a fuel source in six haul trucks at its Fording River steelmakin ...
Thursday, 10 December 15
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL Q3' 16 DELIVERY SWAP WAS CLOSED 7.27% PER TON LOWER COMPARED TO AVERAGE Q1' 16 DELIVERY PRICE
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q1’ 2016 decline month over month and week over week.
The Q1’ 2016 &nbs ...
Wednesday, 09 December 15
U.S. COAL EXPORTS DECLINE IN 2015 DUE TO SLOWER GROWTH IN WORLD COAL DEMAND AND LOWER INTERNATIONAL COAL PRICES - EIA
COALspot.com: The slower growth in world coal demand and lower international coal prices have contributed to a decline in U.S. coal exports in 2015 ...
Wednesday, 09 December 15
DRY BULK EXPERIENCES THE PERFECT STORM - PANOS TSILINGIRIS
Dry bulk experiences the perfect storm as the slowing of demand predominantly because of China sat atop the exaggerated oversupply. The BDI broke t ...
Tuesday, 08 December 15
OPEC'S DECISION BODES WELL FOR THE TANKER MARKET: STRONG MIDDLE EAST CRUDE EXPORTS WILL CONTINUE - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
OPEC’s latest decision to keep up oil production is seen by shipbrokers as a further boost for the tanker market. At the end of last year OPE ...
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- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Australian Coal Association
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- PTC India Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
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