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Wednesday, 11 November 15
VESSEL VALUES ARE DOWN BY AT LEAST 20% SINCE MID-AUGUST - INTERMODAL
 I had promised not to spend another broker’s insight focusing on the dry bulk side. However, the sale of the M/V Churchill Bulker (179,362 dwt, blt ‘11 HHI) to Diana for approximately $28.4m, brought us face to face with the harsh reality once again; values are down by at least 20% since mid-August.
What I found extremely interesting is a new rhetoric which is being created by seasoned professionals that, 7 years after the Lehman collapse, this is the first time we are experiencing a proper shipping crisis. Now that the dust from the financial crisis has settled, capital markets are showing resistance to worldwide political turbulence and financial institutions are nearing the end of their challenge named Basel III, our industry has no alibi in still blaming China or other developing economies for not continuing to outperform expectations. The pundits that still maintain their memories from the 80’s fresh are having a strong “Deja-vu” driven by an enormous order book. Low scrapping activity in 2H 2015 -when compared to current freight rates and pending regulatory reforms further underlines the issue.
But this is all known and extensively documented. Too much ink has been wasted in analyzing, if not dramatizing, the market situation across all sizes. Things are bleak but repeating it doesn’t help solve the problem. There must be a reaction trigger point and when it comes to asset values, that point should be connected to the replacement cost compare to the value of an existing asset; i.e. the moment that buying a modern vessel is a no-brainer because building a new one is uneconomical in every which way you look at it…
The same players recalled that during the bleakest of times, one could purchase a 5yr old vessel for 35-40% of its NB price. No matter how shocking that statement sounds, reading through the new format of our research team’s monthly report, one can easily realize we are not far off that reaction point. As Tier III regulations are applied on every contract being negotiated henceforth, we expect to see at least a 6 month period where even the keenest buyers will follow a “wait and see” tactic towards the new technologies, engines, etc. and NB cost will increase by almost 10% which will shift the curve to levels witnessed almost 30 years ago.
What happened back then?
Well, last time we saw such a discrepancy in NB costs compare to 5yr old values, there was significant disinvestment in NB’s over a prolonged period, which was further intensified by higher scrap volumes and the gradual implementation of a series of regulations, which raised the cost of maintenance and drove even more vessels out of the market.
Does it ring any bells?
By George Dermatis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Wednesday, 23 December 15
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - PANOS MAKRINOS
As we are heading towards the end of the year we could argue that most of those involved in the shipping industry share mixed feelings for 2015. Th ...
Wednesday, 23 December 15
FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP CLOSES FIRM
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q1’ 2016 delivery up $0.45 per ton (1.22%) month over month to US$ 37.20 per ton. The swap wa ...
Tuesday, 22 December 15
3800 GAR INDEX CLOSED AT US$ 22.03 PER TON; DOWN 0.15% W-O-W
COALspot.com: The 5000 GAR CS (i) coal index decline US$ 0.03 per ton (-0.07 %) week over week.
According to the CS (i) coal (system generated ...
Monday, 21 December 15
Q3' 2016 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP CLOSED SLIGHTLY LOWER COMPARE TO Q1'16 CLOSING PRICE
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q1’ 2016 delivery up US$ 0.20 (0.48%) per ton month over month.
A commodity swap is a ...
Sunday, 20 December 15
THE FREIGHT RATES FROM INDONESIA TO INDIA IS EXPECTED TO BE SOFT NEXT WEEK
COALspot.com: The BDI facing all time low's this week. The bulk dry index closed at 477 points on 18 December 2015.
The cape index was als ...
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- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Planning Commission, India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
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