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Wednesday, 11 November 15
VESSEL VALUES ARE DOWN BY AT LEAST 20% SINCE MID-AUGUST - INTERMODAL
 I had promised not to spend another broker’s insight focusing on the dry bulk side. However, the sale of the M/V Churchill Bulker (179,362 dwt, blt ‘11 HHI) to Diana for approximately $28.4m, brought us face to face with the harsh reality once again; values are down by at least 20% since mid-August.
What I found extremely interesting is a new rhetoric which is being created by seasoned professionals that, 7 years after the Lehman collapse, this is the first time we are experiencing a proper shipping crisis. Now that the dust from the financial crisis has settled, capital markets are showing resistance to worldwide political turbulence and financial institutions are nearing the end of their challenge named Basel III, our industry has no alibi in still blaming China or other developing economies for not continuing to outperform expectations. The pundits that still maintain their memories from the 80’s fresh are having a strong “Deja-vu” driven by an enormous order book. Low scrapping activity in 2H 2015 -when compared to current freight rates and pending regulatory reforms further underlines the issue.
But this is all known and extensively documented. Too much ink has been wasted in analyzing, if not dramatizing, the market situation across all sizes. Things are bleak but repeating it doesn’t help solve the problem. There must be a reaction trigger point and when it comes to asset values, that point should be connected to the replacement cost compare to the value of an existing asset; i.e. the moment that buying a modern vessel is a no-brainer because building a new one is uneconomical in every which way you look at it…
The same players recalled that during the bleakest of times, one could purchase a 5yr old vessel for 35-40% of its NB price. No matter how shocking that statement sounds, reading through the new format of our research team’s monthly report, one can easily realize we are not far off that reaction point. As Tier III regulations are applied on every contract being negotiated henceforth, we expect to see at least a 6 month period where even the keenest buyers will follow a “wait and see” tactic towards the new technologies, engines, etc. and NB cost will increase by almost 10% which will shift the curve to levels witnessed almost 30 years ago.
What happened back then?
Well, last time we saw such a discrepancy in NB costs compare to 5yr old values, there was significant disinvestment in NB’s over a prolonged period, which was further intensified by higher scrap volumes and the gradual implementation of a series of regulations, which raised the cost of maintenance and drove even more vessels out of the market.
Does it ring any bells?
By George Dermatis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Saturday, 26 December 15
FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAPS KEEP DROPPING
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap delivery Q1 2016 declined month on month and week over week.
According to AsiaClear OTC coal swap's rep ...
Friday, 25 December 15
WEEKLY US COAL PRODUCTION ESTIMATES DIP 8.5%
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 14.7 million shor ...
Thursday, 24 December 15
Q3' 16 FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAP SHED US$ 0.60 PER TON OVER WEEK, AND STANDS AT US$ 43.25 PER TON
COALspot.com: Q1’ 2016 API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap decline month over month and slightly up week over week.
The Q1’ 2016 FOB R ...
Thursday, 24 December 15
GLOBAL MARINE FUEL REGULATIONS COULD SHOCK REFINING AND OIL MARKETS - OPEC | HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
IMO regulations call for global standards for sulphur content in marine fuel to be tightened to 0.5% from its present 3.5%. There is uncertainty ov ...
Thursday, 24 December 15
DRY BULKERS' VALUES ARE PLUNGING - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Dry bulk carriers’ values are falling across the board, as the fall of freight rates is taking its toll, as is to be expected. In fact, accor ...
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- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- The University of Queensland
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
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