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Wednesday, 11 November 15
VESSEL VALUES ARE DOWN BY AT LEAST 20% SINCE MID-AUGUST - INTERMODAL
 I had promised not to spend another broker’s insight focusing on the dry bulk side. However, the sale of the M/V Churchill Bulker (179,362 dwt, blt ‘11 HHI) to Diana for approximately $28.4m, brought us face to face with the harsh reality once again; values are down by at least 20% since mid-August.
What I found extremely interesting is a new rhetoric which is being created by seasoned professionals that, 7 years after the Lehman collapse, this is the first time we are experiencing a proper shipping crisis. Now that the dust from the financial crisis has settled, capital markets are showing resistance to worldwide political turbulence and financial institutions are nearing the end of their challenge named Basel III, our industry has no alibi in still blaming China or other developing economies for not continuing to outperform expectations. The pundits that still maintain their memories from the 80’s fresh are having a strong “Deja-vu” driven by an enormous order book. Low scrapping activity in 2H 2015 -when compared to current freight rates and pending regulatory reforms further underlines the issue.
But this is all known and extensively documented. Too much ink has been wasted in analyzing, if not dramatizing, the market situation across all sizes. Things are bleak but repeating it doesn’t help solve the problem. There must be a reaction trigger point and when it comes to asset values, that point should be connected to the replacement cost compare to the value of an existing asset; i.e. the moment that buying a modern vessel is a no-brainer because building a new one is uneconomical in every which way you look at it…
The same players recalled that during the bleakest of times, one could purchase a 5yr old vessel for 35-40% of its NB price. No matter how shocking that statement sounds, reading through the new format of our research team’s monthly report, one can easily realize we are not far off that reaction point. As Tier III regulations are applied on every contract being negotiated henceforth, we expect to see at least a 6 month period where even the keenest buyers will follow a “wait and see” tactic towards the new technologies, engines, etc. and NB cost will increase by almost 10% which will shift the curve to levels witnessed almost 30 years ago.
What happened back then?
Well, last time we saw such a discrepancy in NB costs compare to 5yr old values, there was significant disinvestment in NB’s over a prolonged period, which was further intensified by higher scrap volumes and the gradual implementation of a series of regulations, which raised the cost of maintenance and drove even more vessels out of the market.
Does it ring any bells?
By George Dermatis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Thursday, 31 December 15
2016 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP RALLY TO CLOSE AT $37.98/TON
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q1’ 2016 delivery rose another $1.48 per ton (4.05%) this past week compared to the sam ...
Wednesday, 30 December 15
FINAL DEALS OF THE YEAR TAKING PLACE, AS SHIP OWNERS PREPARE FOR 2016 - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The Holidays’ investment lull has taken a grip over the newbuilding and S&P market for second hand vessels, as shipbrokers are reporting ...
Tuesday, 29 December 15
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS ROSE MONTH OVER MONTH
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q1’ 2016 delivery rose US$ 0.68 (1.64%) per ton month over month.
A commodity swap is ...
Monday, 28 December 15
Q2' 15 U.S. STEAM COAL EXPORTS TOTALED 7.0 MMST; DOWN 16.9% FROM Q1 2015 - EIA
COALspot.com: U.S. coal production during second quarter 2015 totaled 211.1 million short tons.
According to EIA’s preliminary quarterly ...
Monday, 28 December 15
NOVEMBER NEWCASTLE COAL EXPORTS DECLINED 11.87%; THE AVERAGE PRICE OF COAL EXPORTS ROSE 1.37%
COALspot.com: The Port of Newcastle, Australia’s major trading ports and the world’s largest coal export port has shipped $1.120 billio ...
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- White Energy Company Limited
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
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