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Wednesday, 11 November 15
VESSEL VALUES ARE DOWN BY AT LEAST 20% SINCE MID-AUGUST - INTERMODAL
 I had promised not to spend another broker’s insight focusing on the dry bulk side. However, the sale of the M/V Churchill Bulker (179,362 dwt, blt ‘11 HHI) to Diana for approximately $28.4m, brought us face to face with the harsh reality once again; values are down by at least 20% since mid-August.
What I found extremely interesting is a new rhetoric which is being created by seasoned professionals that, 7 years after the Lehman collapse, this is the first time we are experiencing a proper shipping crisis. Now that the dust from the financial crisis has settled, capital markets are showing resistance to worldwide political turbulence and financial institutions are nearing the end of their challenge named Basel III, our industry has no alibi in still blaming China or other developing economies for not continuing to outperform expectations. The pundits that still maintain their memories from the 80’s fresh are having a strong “Deja-vu” driven by an enormous order book. Low scrapping activity in 2H 2015 -when compared to current freight rates and pending regulatory reforms further underlines the issue.
But this is all known and extensively documented. Too much ink has been wasted in analyzing, if not dramatizing, the market situation across all sizes. Things are bleak but repeating it doesn’t help solve the problem. There must be a reaction trigger point and when it comes to asset values, that point should be connected to the replacement cost compare to the value of an existing asset; i.e. the moment that buying a modern vessel is a no-brainer because building a new one is uneconomical in every which way you look at it…
The same players recalled that during the bleakest of times, one could purchase a 5yr old vessel for 35-40% of its NB price. No matter how shocking that statement sounds, reading through the new format of our research team’s monthly report, one can easily realize we are not far off that reaction point. As Tier III regulations are applied on every contract being negotiated henceforth, we expect to see at least a 6 month period where even the keenest buyers will follow a “wait and see” tactic towards the new technologies, engines, etc. and NB cost will increase by almost 10% which will shift the curve to levels witnessed almost 30 years ago.
What happened back then?
Well, last time we saw such a discrepancy in NB costs compare to 5yr old values, there was significant disinvestment in NB’s over a prolonged period, which was further intensified by higher scrap volumes and the gradual implementation of a series of regulations, which raised the cost of maintenance and drove even more vessels out of the market.
Does it ring any bells?
By George Dermatis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 05 January 16
THE SHIPPING MARKET IN 2015 AND LOOKING FORWARD - BIMCO
Global economy: menacing clouds in the sky cast a shadow on global economic developments 2015 never really took off, even though the global economi ...
Tuesday, 05 January 16
4200 GAR COAL INDEX FALL TOWARD $27;SLIPPED 28.05% YEAR-TO-DATE
COALspot.com: Average 5000 GAR coal index has not moved in the past week, averaging $40.12 per ton on last Thursday, according to CS (i) Coal Index ...
Monday, 04 January 16
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP REMAIN FLAT OVER CHRISTMAS & NEW YEAR HOLIDAYS
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q1’ 2016 delivery rose US$ 0.68 (1.64%) per ton month over month.
A commodity swap is ...
Friday, 01 January 16
FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP FOR Q1'16 DELIVERY CLOSED AT $36.75 PER TON
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap delivery Q1 2016 declined month on month but flat week over week.
According to AsiaClear OTC coal swap' ...
Thursday, 31 December 15
COAL PRICES FELL ON WEAK DEMAND
COALspot.com: Q1’ 2016 API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap decline month over month and slightly up week over week.
The Q1’ 2016 ...
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- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- White Energy Company Limited
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Australian Coal Association
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Planning Commission, India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
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