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Wednesday, 11 November 15
VESSEL VALUES ARE DOWN BY AT LEAST 20% SINCE MID-AUGUST - INTERMODAL
 I had promised not to spend another broker’s insight focusing on the dry bulk side. However, the sale of the M/V Churchill Bulker (179,362 dwt, blt ‘11 HHI) to Diana for approximately $28.4m, brought us face to face with the harsh reality once again; values are down by at least 20% since mid-August.
What I found extremely interesting is a new rhetoric which is being created by seasoned professionals that, 7 years after the Lehman collapse, this is the first time we are experiencing a proper shipping crisis. Now that the dust from the financial crisis has settled, capital markets are showing resistance to worldwide political turbulence and financial institutions are nearing the end of their challenge named Basel III, our industry has no alibi in still blaming China or other developing economies for not continuing to outperform expectations. The pundits that still maintain their memories from the 80’s fresh are having a strong “Deja-vu” driven by an enormous order book. Low scrapping activity in 2H 2015 -when compared to current freight rates and pending regulatory reforms further underlines the issue.
But this is all known and extensively documented. Too much ink has been wasted in analyzing, if not dramatizing, the market situation across all sizes. Things are bleak but repeating it doesn’t help solve the problem. There must be a reaction trigger point and when it comes to asset values, that point should be connected to the replacement cost compare to the value of an existing asset; i.e. the moment that buying a modern vessel is a no-brainer because building a new one is uneconomical in every which way you look at it…
The same players recalled that during the bleakest of times, one could purchase a 5yr old vessel for 35-40% of its NB price. No matter how shocking that statement sounds, reading through the new format of our research team’s monthly report, one can easily realize we are not far off that reaction point. As Tier III regulations are applied on every contract being negotiated henceforth, we expect to see at least a 6 month period where even the keenest buyers will follow a “wait and see” tactic towards the new technologies, engines, etc. and NB cost will increase by almost 10% which will shift the curve to levels witnessed almost 30 years ago.
What happened back then?
Well, last time we saw such a discrepancy in NB costs compare to 5yr old values, there was significant disinvestment in NB’s over a prolonged period, which was further intensified by higher scrap volumes and the gradual implementation of a series of regulations, which raised the cost of maintenance and drove even more vessels out of the market.
Does it ring any bells?
By George Dermatis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Friday, 08 January 16
DRY BULK MARKET'S CRISIS DEEPENS AS RATES ARE DROPPING TO NEW RECORD LOWS BY THE DAY - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Just when you would think that the dry bulk market is reaching its bottom, even as it has long surpassed all-time lows, each day that passes by at ...
Thursday, 07 January 16
FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAPS DELIVERY Q1'16 REMAIN FLAT W-O-W; UP M-O-M
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q1’ 2016 delivery rose another $1.23 per ton (3.35%) this past week compared to the sam ...
Thursday, 07 January 16
SHIPPING WILL REMAIN VOLATILE AND INDISPENSABLE IN 2016 - MOORE STEPHENS
The ultimate definition of an optimist has been characterised as an accordion player with an answerphone. Such extreme optimism might be difficult ...
Wednesday, 06 January 16
NEW COAL PRICE PASS-THROUGH REGULATION BENEFITS CHINA IPPS - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings says the new Coal Price Pass-through Mechanism announced by the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) on 31 December ...
Tuesday, 05 January 16
BIG COAL MINERS PLAN HIGHER PRODUCTION THIS YEAR - THE JAKARTA POST
The country’s major coal miners plan to further boost production in 2016 although analysts estimate that an oversupply in the world’s c ...
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- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Planning Commission, India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Australian Coal Association
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
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