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Wednesday, 11 November 15
VESSEL VALUES ARE DOWN BY AT LEAST 20% SINCE MID-AUGUST - INTERMODAL
 I had promised not to spend another broker’s insight focusing on the dry bulk side. However, the sale of the M/V Churchill Bulker (179,362 dwt, blt ‘11 HHI) to Diana for approximately $28.4m, brought us face to face with the harsh reality once again; values are down by at least 20% since mid-August.
What I found extremely interesting is a new rhetoric which is being created by seasoned professionals that, 7 years after the Lehman collapse, this is the first time we are experiencing a proper shipping crisis. Now that the dust from the financial crisis has settled, capital markets are showing resistance to worldwide political turbulence and financial institutions are nearing the end of their challenge named Basel III, our industry has no alibi in still blaming China or other developing economies for not continuing to outperform expectations. The pundits that still maintain their memories from the 80’s fresh are having a strong “Deja-vu” driven by an enormous order book. Low scrapping activity in 2H 2015 -when compared to current freight rates and pending regulatory reforms further underlines the issue.
But this is all known and extensively documented. Too much ink has been wasted in analyzing, if not dramatizing, the market situation across all sizes. Things are bleak but repeating it doesn’t help solve the problem. There must be a reaction trigger point and when it comes to asset values, that point should be connected to the replacement cost compare to the value of an existing asset; i.e. the moment that buying a modern vessel is a no-brainer because building a new one is uneconomical in every which way you look at it…
The same players recalled that during the bleakest of times, one could purchase a 5yr old vessel for 35-40% of its NB price. No matter how shocking that statement sounds, reading through the new format of our research team’s monthly report, one can easily realize we are not far off that reaction point. As Tier III regulations are applied on every contract being negotiated henceforth, we expect to see at least a 6 month period where even the keenest buyers will follow a “wait and see” tactic towards the new technologies, engines, etc. and NB cost will increase by almost 10% which will shift the curve to levels witnessed almost 30 years ago.
What happened back then?
Well, last time we saw such a discrepancy in NB costs compare to 5yr old values, there was significant disinvestment in NB’s over a prolonged period, which was further intensified by higher scrap volumes and the gradual implementation of a series of regulations, which raised the cost of maintenance and drove even more vessels out of the market.
Does it ring any bells?
By George Dermatis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Sunday, 10 January 16
LNG BUNKERING IN ASIA: FUELING A PROMISING FUTURE? - REED SMITH
The requirement of a mandatory reduction of sulphur content in bunker fuel proposed by the International Maritime Organisation (IMO) poses a challe ...
Saturday, 09 January 16
BALTIC DRY INDEX SINKS 10% WEEK OVER WEEK TO AN ALL-TIME LOW OF 429 POINTS
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange’s main sea freight index, which tracks rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities, decline around 10% we ...
Friday, 08 January 16
FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP FOR DELIVERY H1'16 REMAIN FLAT AS DEMAND DROPS OFF
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap delivery Q1 2016 declined month on month, flat week over week. The price for coal has been in a Dull Market sinc ...
Friday, 08 January 16
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAP FOR Q2'16 DELIVERY CLOSED UP $0.13 AT $45.50 PER TON
COALspot.com: Q1’ 2016 API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap decline month over month and slightly up week over week.
The Q1’ 2016 FOB R ...
Friday, 08 January 16
WEEKLY US COAL PRODUCTION DECLINES 1.6% TO 11.7 MMST, SAYS EIA
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 11.7million short ...
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- White Energy Company Limited
- VISA Power Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- The University of Queensland
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- PTC India Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
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