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Wednesday, 21 October 15
MARKET INSIGHT - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
 In today’s dry bulk market, both freight rates and asset prices are creating mixed feelings to seasoned ship owners, who tend to instinctively invest when asset values are low.
Although for a traditional ship-owner, buying a ship and supporting the investment for a period of time is part of being a ship-owner, these days the billion dollar question is "For how long would they have to do so?"
So far, 2015 is more bearish than 2012 which, for the most of us, was perceived as the previous low. When comparing the two, a big difference is that this year there is limited, if any, ordering in the Dry Bulk sector, which means that the industry has probably learned from past mistakes.
If we look at the Panamax / Kamsarmax sector, in 2012 the average BPI was at 963 points compared to the up to date average of 738 point in 2015. In dollar terms for the segment, the average TCA for 2012 was $7,700/day vs $5,900/day this year. SnP data for such ships built post 2000 in Korean and Japanese yards is not aligning with the respective freight trend though. In 2012 there were a total of 23 sales compared to an almost double of 44 transactions reported in the first nine months of 2015.
Another significant difference is that this year the majority of the buyers are traditional and experienced ship-owners, who see this downward spiral of the rates and prices as the right opportunity to invest. Back in 2012 a lot of equity funds, and in general non-traditional financial vehicles were entering and investing in either newbuilding or second hand assets.
Right after the bottom of 2012 we saw an increase on second hand transactions during 2013, which has been the highest up until this year. 2013 also had the highest BPI average and the highest TCA. In the end, the 2013 optimism proved short lived as in 2014 the market started to drop again leading to a small decline in sales for that year. Now what’s interesting in 2015, is that with the lowest BPI and TCA of the 4 year period, it looks like that by the end of it the number of transaction will surpass that of 2013.
Some might say that asset prices will drop further and that potential buyers should wait a bit longer. But let’s be honest; at the price levels we are seeing today, ships are already being priced low. Now if one is worried that by investing now they could miss on a potential additional discount of a 2-3% that might take place down the line, it’s their right to do so. The reality of the situation however, remains the same. When the market is low, investing makes sense. And it seems that people with the most experience out there are doing exactly that.
By Timos Papadimitriou
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Monday, 28 September 15
Q1'16 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP ROSE 2.73 PER CENT M-M
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for 4Q’ 2015 delivery moved upward US$ 1.45 (3.04 %) per ton month over month.
A commodity ...
Sunday, 27 September 15
THE PANAMAX INDEX FELL 1.19 PCT WEEK OVER WEEK
COALspot.com: The BDI closed Friday (25/09/2015) at 943 points, down by 17 points compared to previous Friday closing (18/09/2015). The BDI wa ...
Friday, 25 September 15
COAL PRODUCTION IN THE U.S. FOR THE WEEK ENDING SEPTEMBER 19 ROSE 2.5% PER CENT W-W
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 17.8 million shor ...
Wednesday, 23 September 15
CAPESIZE: SPOT RATES HAVE INCREASED MORE THAN 70 PER CENT DURING LAST WEEK
Dry Bulk owners, always look at September as the time that the market “signals” what lies ahead for the remainder of the year. The Chin ...
Wednesday, 23 September 15
INDONESIA: NEW REGULATION APPLIES FINAL INCOME TAX TO MINERAL AND COAL SALES - FLORENCE GRACIA SANTOSO
To increase state revenue from the mining sector, the Government of Indonesia has imposed a new final income tax on any sale of mineral and coal, a ...
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- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
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- Planning Commission, India
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- The University of Queensland
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- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
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- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
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- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
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- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
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- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
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- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
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- PTC India Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
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- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
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- Videocon Industries ltd - India
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- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
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- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
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- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
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- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
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- Ministry of Mines - Canada
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- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
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