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Wednesday, 21 October 15
MARKET INSIGHT - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
 In today’s dry bulk market, both freight rates and asset prices are creating mixed feelings to seasoned ship owners, who tend to instinctively invest when asset values are low.
Although for a traditional ship-owner, buying a ship and supporting the investment for a period of time is part of being a ship-owner, these days the billion dollar question is "For how long would they have to do so?"
So far, 2015 is more bearish than 2012 which, for the most of us, was perceived as the previous low. When comparing the two, a big difference is that this year there is limited, if any, ordering in the Dry Bulk sector, which means that the industry has probably learned from past mistakes.
If we look at the Panamax / Kamsarmax sector, in 2012 the average BPI was at 963 points compared to the up to date average of 738 point in 2015. In dollar terms for the segment, the average TCA for 2012 was $7,700/day vs $5,900/day this year. SnP data for such ships built post 2000 in Korean and Japanese yards is not aligning with the respective freight trend though. In 2012 there were a total of 23 sales compared to an almost double of 44 transactions reported in the first nine months of 2015.
Another significant difference is that this year the majority of the buyers are traditional and experienced ship-owners, who see this downward spiral of the rates and prices as the right opportunity to invest. Back in 2012 a lot of equity funds, and in general non-traditional financial vehicles were entering and investing in either newbuilding or second hand assets.
Right after the bottom of 2012 we saw an increase on second hand transactions during 2013, which has been the highest up until this year. 2013 also had the highest BPI average and the highest TCA. In the end, the 2013 optimism proved short lived as in 2014 the market started to drop again leading to a small decline in sales for that year. Now what’s interesting in 2015, is that with the lowest BPI and TCA of the 4 year period, it looks like that by the end of it the number of transaction will surpass that of 2013.
Some might say that asset prices will drop further and that potential buyers should wait a bit longer. But let’s be honest; at the price levels we are seeing today, ships are already being priced low. Now if one is worried that by investing now they could miss on a potential additional discount of a 2-3% that might take place down the line, it’s their right to do so. The reality of the situation however, remains the same. When the market is low, investing makes sense. And it seems that people with the most experience out there are doing exactly that.
By Timos Papadimitriou
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Wednesday, 30 September 15
Q1'16 FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP FALLS $1.25 A TON AS SLIDE CONTINUES
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery Q4 2015 declined month on month and week over week.
The Q4 swap declined $ 0.72 (-1.78%) per t ...
Wednesday, 30 September 15
NEW BUILDING MARKET INSIGHT
COALspot.com: This year has been, beyond any doubt, a rather strenuous one for the newbuilding market. Ordering activity with regards to Dry Bulker ...
Tuesday, 29 September 15
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAPS ARE SLIDING
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q4' 2015 declined week over week and month over month.
The Q4 swap was down US$ ...
Monday, 28 September 15
API 5 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAPS UP $2.15 IN ONE MONTH
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q4’ 2015 delivery increased $2.10 per ton (5.15%) month over month to US$ 42.93 per ton. The ...
Monday, 28 September 15
CAPESIZE FLEET INCREASES BY JUST 1 VESSEL DURING LAST 12 MONTHS, IN POSITIVE SIGN FOR DRY BULK SHIPPING MARKET - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
After a rather tumultuous period, the shipping industry and more particular the dry bulk market has started to adjust to the new realities of globa ...
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- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- White Energy Company Limited
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Planning Commission, India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
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