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Wednesday, 21 October 15
MARKET INSIGHT - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
 In today’s dry bulk market, both freight rates and asset prices are creating mixed feelings to seasoned ship owners, who tend to instinctively invest when asset values are low.
Although for a traditional ship-owner, buying a ship and supporting the investment for a period of time is part of being a ship-owner, these days the billion dollar question is "For how long would they have to do so?"
So far, 2015 is more bearish than 2012 which, for the most of us, was perceived as the previous low. When comparing the two, a big difference is that this year there is limited, if any, ordering in the Dry Bulk sector, which means that the industry has probably learned from past mistakes.
If we look at the Panamax / Kamsarmax sector, in 2012 the average BPI was at 963 points compared to the up to date average of 738 point in 2015. In dollar terms for the segment, the average TCA for 2012 was $7,700/day vs $5,900/day this year. SnP data for such ships built post 2000 in Korean and Japanese yards is not aligning with the respective freight trend though. In 2012 there were a total of 23 sales compared to an almost double of 44 transactions reported in the first nine months of 2015.
Another significant difference is that this year the majority of the buyers are traditional and experienced ship-owners, who see this downward spiral of the rates and prices as the right opportunity to invest. Back in 2012 a lot of equity funds, and in general non-traditional financial vehicles were entering and investing in either newbuilding or second hand assets.
Right after the bottom of 2012 we saw an increase on second hand transactions during 2013, which has been the highest up until this year. 2013 also had the highest BPI average and the highest TCA. In the end, the 2013 optimism proved short lived as in 2014 the market started to drop again leading to a small decline in sales for that year. Now what’s interesting in 2015, is that with the lowest BPI and TCA of the 4 year period, it looks like that by the end of it the number of transaction will surpass that of 2013.
Some might say that asset prices will drop further and that potential buyers should wait a bit longer. But let’s be honest; at the price levels we are seeing today, ships are already being priced low. Now if one is worried that by investing now they could miss on a potential additional discount of a 2-3% that might take place down the line, it’s their right to do so. The reality of the situation however, remains the same. When the market is low, investing makes sense. And it seems that people with the most experience out there are doing exactly that.
By Timos Papadimitriou
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Tuesday, 22 September 15
1Q16 FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP DECLINED 6.49 PER CENT M-M
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery 4Q 2015 declined month on month and week over week.
The 4Q swap declined $ 2.29 (-5.42%) per t ...
Tuesday, 22 September 15
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAPS FALL CONTINUES
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery 4Q' 2015 declined week over week and month over month.
The 4Q swap was down US$ ...
Monday, 21 September 15
Q4' 15 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP CLOSED HIGHER THAN Q2' 16 SWAP
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for 4Q’ 2015 delivery increased $0.43 per ton (1.01%) month over month to US$ 42.95 per ton. The ...
Monday, 21 September 15
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP GAINED WEEK OVER WEEK
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for 4Q’ 2015 delivery declined just US$ 0.45 (0.90 %) per ton month over month.
A commodit ...
Monday, 21 September 15
KOMIPO OF KOREA INVITES BIDS FOR BITUMINOUS COAL
COALspot.com: South Korean state-owned utility Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) issued an new tender for 390,000 Metric Tons (MT) of minimum 4,600 kcal ...
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- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- The Treasury - Australian Government
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- VISA Power Limited - India
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- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
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- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
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- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
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- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
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- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
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- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Planning Commission, India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- PTC India Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
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