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Wednesday, 21 October 15
MARKET INSIGHT - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
 In today’s dry bulk market, both freight rates and asset prices are creating mixed feelings to seasoned ship owners, who tend to instinctively invest when asset values are low.
Although for a traditional ship-owner, buying a ship and supporting the investment for a period of time is part of being a ship-owner, these days the billion dollar question is "For how long would they have to do so?"
So far, 2015 is more bearish than 2012 which, for the most of us, was perceived as the previous low. When comparing the two, a big difference is that this year there is limited, if any, ordering in the Dry Bulk sector, which means that the industry has probably learned from past mistakes.
If we look at the Panamax / Kamsarmax sector, in 2012 the average BPI was at 963 points compared to the up to date average of 738 point in 2015. In dollar terms for the segment, the average TCA for 2012 was $7,700/day vs $5,900/day this year. SnP data for such ships built post 2000 in Korean and Japanese yards is not aligning with the respective freight trend though. In 2012 there were a total of 23 sales compared to an almost double of 44 transactions reported in the first nine months of 2015.
Another significant difference is that this year the majority of the buyers are traditional and experienced ship-owners, who see this downward spiral of the rates and prices as the right opportunity to invest. Back in 2012 a lot of equity funds, and in general non-traditional financial vehicles were entering and investing in either newbuilding or second hand assets.
Right after the bottom of 2012 we saw an increase on second hand transactions during 2013, which has been the highest up until this year. 2013 also had the highest BPI average and the highest TCA. In the end, the 2013 optimism proved short lived as in 2014 the market started to drop again leading to a small decline in sales for that year. Now what’s interesting in 2015, is that with the lowest BPI and TCA of the 4 year period, it looks like that by the end of it the number of transaction will surpass that of 2013.
Some might say that asset prices will drop further and that potential buyers should wait a bit longer. But let’s be honest; at the price levels we are seeing today, ships are already being priced low. Now if one is worried that by investing now they could miss on a potential additional discount of a 2-3% that might take place down the line, it’s their right to do so. The reality of the situation however, remains the same. When the market is low, investing makes sense. And it seems that people with the most experience out there are doing exactly that.
By Timos Papadimitriou
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Sunday, 20 September 15
BALTIC CAPE INDEX ROSE 66.52 PER CENT AND STAND NOW AT 1995 POINTS
COALspot.com: The BDI (Baltic Dry Index) rose 17.35 per cent week over week to 960 points on Friday mainly driven by the Capesize segment. The Cape ...
Friday, 18 September 15
SHIPPING AND THE FED RATE DECISION: FINANCING COSTS COULD RISE EVEN HIGHER - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Regardless of the FED’s decision to raise rates, shipping stands to be influenced by the decision. Shipbroker Allied Shipbroking noted this w ...
Friday, 18 September 15
U.S. COAL PRODUCTION DECLINED 6.7 PER CENT W-W: EIA
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 17.4 million shor ...
Thursday, 17 September 15
COALSPOT HAS LAUNCHED NEW THERMAL COAL INDICES FOR INDONESIAN COAL
COALspot.com has today launched real-time CS (i) Coal Indices.
The Indices represents 3800 kcal/kg GAR, 4200 kcal/kg GAR, 5000 kcal/kg GAR a ...
Thursday, 17 September 15
LOW DEMAND PUSH COAL SWAP DOWN
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery 4Q 2015 declined month on month and gain week over week.
The 4Q swap declined $ 1.77 (-4.17%) ...
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- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Economic Council, Georgia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
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