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Wednesday, 21 October 15
MARKET INSIGHT - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
 In today’s dry bulk market, both freight rates and asset prices are creating mixed feelings to seasoned ship owners, who tend to instinctively invest when asset values are low.
Although for a traditional ship-owner, buying a ship and supporting the investment for a period of time is part of being a ship-owner, these days the billion dollar question is "For how long would they have to do so?"
So far, 2015 is more bearish than 2012 which, for the most of us, was perceived as the previous low. When comparing the two, a big difference is that this year there is limited, if any, ordering in the Dry Bulk sector, which means that the industry has probably learned from past mistakes.
If we look at the Panamax / Kamsarmax sector, in 2012 the average BPI was at 963 points compared to the up to date average of 738 point in 2015. In dollar terms for the segment, the average TCA for 2012 was $7,700/day vs $5,900/day this year. SnP data for such ships built post 2000 in Korean and Japanese yards is not aligning with the respective freight trend though. In 2012 there were a total of 23 sales compared to an almost double of 44 transactions reported in the first nine months of 2015.
Another significant difference is that this year the majority of the buyers are traditional and experienced ship-owners, who see this downward spiral of the rates and prices as the right opportunity to invest. Back in 2012 a lot of equity funds, and in general non-traditional financial vehicles were entering and investing in either newbuilding or second hand assets.
Right after the bottom of 2012 we saw an increase on second hand transactions during 2013, which has been the highest up until this year. 2013 also had the highest BPI average and the highest TCA. In the end, the 2013 optimism proved short lived as in 2014 the market started to drop again leading to a small decline in sales for that year. Now what’s interesting in 2015, is that with the lowest BPI and TCA of the 4 year period, it looks like that by the end of it the number of transaction will surpass that of 2013.
Some might say that asset prices will drop further and that potential buyers should wait a bit longer. But let’s be honest; at the price levels we are seeing today, ships are already being priced low. Now if one is worried that by investing now they could miss on a potential additional discount of a 2-3% that might take place down the line, it’s their right to do so. The reality of the situation however, remains the same. When the market is low, investing makes sense. And it seems that people with the most experience out there are doing exactly that.
By Timos Papadimitriou
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Monday, 05 October 15
Q1' 16 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP CLOSED US$ 48.05 PER TON
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for 4Q’ 2015 delivery down US$ 0.47 (0.96 %) per ton month over month.
A commodity swap is ...
Monday, 05 October 15
SMALL DECLINE IN 2014 SHIP OPERATING COSTS - MOORE STEPHENS
Total annual operating costs in the shipping industry fell by an average of 0.8% in 2014. This compares with the 0.3% average fall in costs recorde ...
Sunday, 04 October 15
THE INDO-INDIA FREIGHT MARKET REMAINS UNDER PRESSURE
COALspot.com: The BDI closed on Friday (2 Oct 2015) at 889 points, down by 54 points compared to previous Friday's closing ( 24 Sept 2015) of 9 ...
Friday, 02 October 15
COAL PRODUCTION IN THE UNITED STATES DECREASED THIS WEEK - EIA
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 17.5 million shor ...
Thursday, 01 October 15
SOUTH KOREA'S KOMIPO SEEKS SPOT BITUMINOUS COAL SUPPLIES
COALspot.com: South Korean state-owned utility Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) issued an new tender for 265,000 Metric Tons (MT) of minimum 4,600 kcal ...
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- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
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- Parliament of New Zealand
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- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
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- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
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- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- White Energy Company Limited
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- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- PTC India Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
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- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
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- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
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- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
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