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Wednesday, 21 October 15
MARKET INSIGHT - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
 In today’s dry bulk market, both freight rates and asset prices are creating mixed feelings to seasoned ship owners, who tend to instinctively invest when asset values are low.
Although for a traditional ship-owner, buying a ship and supporting the investment for a period of time is part of being a ship-owner, these days the billion dollar question is "For how long would they have to do so?"
So far, 2015 is more bearish than 2012 which, for the most of us, was perceived as the previous low. When comparing the two, a big difference is that this year there is limited, if any, ordering in the Dry Bulk sector, which means that the industry has probably learned from past mistakes.
If we look at the Panamax / Kamsarmax sector, in 2012 the average BPI was at 963 points compared to the up to date average of 738 point in 2015. In dollar terms for the segment, the average TCA for 2012 was $7,700/day vs $5,900/day this year. SnP data for such ships built post 2000 in Korean and Japanese yards is not aligning with the respective freight trend though. In 2012 there were a total of 23 sales compared to an almost double of 44 transactions reported in the first nine months of 2015.
Another significant difference is that this year the majority of the buyers are traditional and experienced ship-owners, who see this downward spiral of the rates and prices as the right opportunity to invest. Back in 2012 a lot of equity funds, and in general non-traditional financial vehicles were entering and investing in either newbuilding or second hand assets.
Right after the bottom of 2012 we saw an increase on second hand transactions during 2013, which has been the highest up until this year. 2013 also had the highest BPI average and the highest TCA. In the end, the 2013 optimism proved short lived as in 2014 the market started to drop again leading to a small decline in sales for that year. Now what’s interesting in 2015, is that with the lowest BPI and TCA of the 4 year period, it looks like that by the end of it the number of transaction will surpass that of 2013.
Some might say that asset prices will drop further and that potential buyers should wait a bit longer. But let’s be honest; at the price levels we are seeing today, ships are already being priced low. Now if one is worried that by investing now they could miss on a potential additional discount of a 2-3% that might take place down the line, it’s their right to do so. The reality of the situation however, remains the same. When the market is low, investing makes sense. And it seems that people with the most experience out there are doing exactly that.
By Timos Papadimitriou
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Tuesday, 20 October 15
API 5 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP CLOSED NEGATIVE
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q4’ 2015 delivery decreased $1.23 per ton (2.86%) month over month to US$ 41.80 per ton. The ...
Monday, 19 October 15
RUSSIA MAJOR COAL MINER KRU CUTS 4.5 MLN T/YR "UNPROFITABLE" EURO SALES - JACQUELINE HOLMES
COALspot.com: Kuzbassrazrezugol (KRU), one of Russia's largest producers of high-quality coal, plans to cut its coal exports in 2016 by about 4 ...
Monday, 19 October 15
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP CLOSED AT $48.68 PER TON
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for 4Q’ 2015 delivery down just US cents 55 (1.12 %) per ton month over month.
A commodity ...
Monday, 19 October 15
KOMIPO SEEKS 1.28 MILLION T/Y COAL FOR DEC 2015 - Q2 2016
COALspot.com: South Korean state-owned utility Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) issued an new tender for 1,280,000 Metric Tons (MT) of minimum 4,600 kc ...
Sunday, 18 October 15
THE BDI AND OTHER INDICES CLOSED OFF ON NEGATIVE NOTE THIS FRIDAY
COALspot.com: The BDI closed off on negative note this Friday compared to previous Friday's closing.
The BDI closed this Friday (16 Octobe ...
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- PTC India Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- CNBM International Corporation - China
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- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
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- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
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- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
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