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Wednesday, 21 October 15
MARKET INSIGHT - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
 In today’s dry bulk market, both freight rates and asset prices are creating mixed feelings to seasoned ship owners, who tend to instinctively invest when asset values are low.
Although for a traditional ship-owner, buying a ship and supporting the investment for a period of time is part of being a ship-owner, these days the billion dollar question is "For how long would they have to do so?"
So far, 2015 is more bearish than 2012 which, for the most of us, was perceived as the previous low. When comparing the two, a big difference is that this year there is limited, if any, ordering in the Dry Bulk sector, which means that the industry has probably learned from past mistakes.
If we look at the Panamax / Kamsarmax sector, in 2012 the average BPI was at 963 points compared to the up to date average of 738 point in 2015. In dollar terms for the segment, the average TCA for 2012 was $7,700/day vs $5,900/day this year. SnP data for such ships built post 2000 in Korean and Japanese yards is not aligning with the respective freight trend though. In 2012 there were a total of 23 sales compared to an almost double of 44 transactions reported in the first nine months of 2015.
Another significant difference is that this year the majority of the buyers are traditional and experienced ship-owners, who see this downward spiral of the rates and prices as the right opportunity to invest. Back in 2012 a lot of equity funds, and in general non-traditional financial vehicles were entering and investing in either newbuilding or second hand assets.
Right after the bottom of 2012 we saw an increase on second hand transactions during 2013, which has been the highest up until this year. 2013 also had the highest BPI average and the highest TCA. In the end, the 2013 optimism proved short lived as in 2014 the market started to drop again leading to a small decline in sales for that year. Now what’s interesting in 2015, is that with the lowest BPI and TCA of the 4 year period, it looks like that by the end of it the number of transaction will surpass that of 2013.
Some might say that asset prices will drop further and that potential buyers should wait a bit longer. But let’s be honest; at the price levels we are seeing today, ships are already being priced low. Now if one is worried that by investing now they could miss on a potential additional discount of a 2-3% that might take place down the line, it’s their right to do so. The reality of the situation however, remains the same. When the market is low, investing makes sense. And it seems that people with the most experience out there are doing exactly that.
By Timos Papadimitriou
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 20 October 15
API 5 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP CLOSED NEGATIVE
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q4’ 2015 delivery decreased $1.23 per ton (2.86%) month over month to US$ 41.80 per ton. The ...
Monday, 19 October 15
RUSSIA MAJOR COAL MINER KRU CUTS 4.5 MLN T/YR "UNPROFITABLE" EURO SALES - JACQUELINE HOLMES
COALspot.com: Kuzbassrazrezugol (KRU), one of Russia's largest producers of high-quality coal, plans to cut its coal exports in 2016 by about 4 ...
Monday, 19 October 15
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP CLOSED AT $48.68 PER TON
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for 4Q’ 2015 delivery down just US cents 55 (1.12 %) per ton month over month.
A commodity ...
Monday, 19 October 15
KOMIPO SEEKS 1.28 MILLION T/Y COAL FOR DEC 2015 - Q2 2016
COALspot.com: South Korean state-owned utility Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) issued an new tender for 1,280,000 Metric Tons (MT) of minimum 4,600 kc ...
Sunday, 18 October 15
THE BDI AND OTHER INDICES CLOSED OFF ON NEGATIVE NOTE THIS FRIDAY
COALspot.com: The BDI closed off on negative note this Friday compared to previous Friday's closing.
The BDI closed this Friday (16 Octobe ...
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- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Planning Commission, India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- MS Steel International - UAE
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
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