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Wednesday, 21 October 15
MARKET INSIGHT - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
 In today’s dry bulk market, both freight rates and asset prices are creating mixed feelings to seasoned ship owners, who tend to instinctively invest when asset values are low.
Although for a traditional ship-owner, buying a ship and supporting the investment for a period of time is part of being a ship-owner, these days the billion dollar question is "For how long would they have to do so?"
So far, 2015 is more bearish than 2012 which, for the most of us, was perceived as the previous low. When comparing the two, a big difference is that this year there is limited, if any, ordering in the Dry Bulk sector, which means that the industry has probably learned from past mistakes.
If we look at the Panamax / Kamsarmax sector, in 2012 the average BPI was at 963 points compared to the up to date average of 738 point in 2015. In dollar terms for the segment, the average TCA for 2012 was $7,700/day vs $5,900/day this year. SnP data for such ships built post 2000 in Korean and Japanese yards is not aligning with the respective freight trend though. In 2012 there were a total of 23 sales compared to an almost double of 44 transactions reported in the first nine months of 2015.
Another significant difference is that this year the majority of the buyers are traditional and experienced ship-owners, who see this downward spiral of the rates and prices as the right opportunity to invest. Back in 2012 a lot of equity funds, and in general non-traditional financial vehicles were entering and investing in either newbuilding or second hand assets.
Right after the bottom of 2012 we saw an increase on second hand transactions during 2013, which has been the highest up until this year. 2013 also had the highest BPI average and the highest TCA. In the end, the 2013 optimism proved short lived as in 2014 the market started to drop again leading to a small decline in sales for that year. Now what’s interesting in 2015, is that with the lowest BPI and TCA of the 4 year period, it looks like that by the end of it the number of transaction will surpass that of 2013.
Some might say that asset prices will drop further and that potential buyers should wait a bit longer. But let’s be honest; at the price levels we are seeing today, ships are already being priced low. Now if one is worried that by investing now they could miss on a potential additional discount of a 2-3% that might take place down the line, it’s their right to do so. The reality of the situation however, remains the same. When the market is low, investing makes sense. And it seems that people with the most experience out there are doing exactly that.
By Timos Papadimitriou
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Tuesday, 20 October 15
API 5 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP CLOSED NEGATIVE
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q4’ 2015 delivery decreased $1.23 per ton (2.86%) month over month to US$ 41.80 per ton. The ...
Monday, 19 October 15
RUSSIA MAJOR COAL MINER KRU CUTS 4.5 MLN T/YR "UNPROFITABLE" EURO SALES - JACQUELINE HOLMES
COALspot.com: Kuzbassrazrezugol (KRU), one of Russia's largest producers of high-quality coal, plans to cut its coal exports in 2016 by about 4 ...
Monday, 19 October 15
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP CLOSED AT $48.68 PER TON
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for 4Q’ 2015 delivery down just US cents 55 (1.12 %) per ton month over month.
A commodity ...
Monday, 19 October 15
KOMIPO SEEKS 1.28 MILLION T/Y COAL FOR DEC 2015 - Q2 2016
COALspot.com: South Korean state-owned utility Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) issued an new tender for 1,280,000 Metric Tons (MT) of minimum 4,600 kc ...
Sunday, 18 October 15
THE BDI AND OTHER INDICES CLOSED OFF ON NEGATIVE NOTE THIS FRIDAY
COALspot.com: The BDI closed off on negative note this Friday compared to previous Friday's closing.
The BDI closed this Friday (16 Octobe ...
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- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- PTC India Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- White Energy Company Limited
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- The University of Queensland
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Australian Coal Association
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
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