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Wednesday, 21 October 15
MARKET INSIGHT - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
 In today’s dry bulk market, both freight rates and asset prices are creating mixed feelings to seasoned ship owners, who tend to instinctively invest when asset values are low.
Although for a traditional ship-owner, buying a ship and supporting the investment for a period of time is part of being a ship-owner, these days the billion dollar question is "For how long would they have to do so?"
So far, 2015 is more bearish than 2012 which, for the most of us, was perceived as the previous low. When comparing the two, a big difference is that this year there is limited, if any, ordering in the Dry Bulk sector, which means that the industry has probably learned from past mistakes.
If we look at the Panamax / Kamsarmax sector, in 2012 the average BPI was at 963 points compared to the up to date average of 738 point in 2015. In dollar terms for the segment, the average TCA for 2012 was $7,700/day vs $5,900/day this year. SnP data for such ships built post 2000 in Korean and Japanese yards is not aligning with the respective freight trend though. In 2012 there were a total of 23 sales compared to an almost double of 44 transactions reported in the first nine months of 2015.
Another significant difference is that this year the majority of the buyers are traditional and experienced ship-owners, who see this downward spiral of the rates and prices as the right opportunity to invest. Back in 2012 a lot of equity funds, and in general non-traditional financial vehicles were entering and investing in either newbuilding or second hand assets.
Right after the bottom of 2012 we saw an increase on second hand transactions during 2013, which has been the highest up until this year. 2013 also had the highest BPI average and the highest TCA. In the end, the 2013 optimism proved short lived as in 2014 the market started to drop again leading to a small decline in sales for that year. Now what’s interesting in 2015, is that with the lowest BPI and TCA of the 4 year period, it looks like that by the end of it the number of transaction will surpass that of 2013.
Some might say that asset prices will drop further and that potential buyers should wait a bit longer. But let’s be honest; at the price levels we are seeing today, ships are already being priced low. Now if one is worried that by investing now they could miss on a potential additional discount of a 2-3% that might take place down the line, it’s their right to do so. The reality of the situation however, remains the same. When the market is low, investing makes sense. And it seems that people with the most experience out there are doing exactly that.
By Timos Papadimitriou
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Thursday, 15 October 15
Q1' 16 FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAP ADVANCED 2 PER CENT WEEK OVER WEEK
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q4' 2015 gain week over week and declined month over month.
The Q4 swap was dow ...
Tuesday, 13 October 15
DRY BULK SHIPPING FLEET NET EXPANSION WAS 1.3% DURING THIRD QUARTER, BUT ORDERBOOK REDUCED TO 17% OF THE TRADING FLEET
If the dry bulk market is to rebound on a sustainable level, it needs to limit the tonnage expansion, at least until demand picks up again, as Chin ...
Tuesday, 13 October 15
FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP DECLINED 2 PER CENT MONTH OVER MONTH
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q4’ 2015 delivery decreased $0.46 per ton (1.08%) month over month to US$ 42.17 per ton. The ...
Monday, 12 October 15
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS GAIN W-W; SLIGHTLY DOWN M-M
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for 4Q’ 2015 delivery down just US cents 3 (0.06 %) per ton month over month.
A commodity ...
Monday, 12 October 15
DRY BULK SHIPPING: MARKETS ARE SLOWLY IMPROVING FROM A VERY LOW LEVEL AS THE DEMAND SIDE FALTERS - HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The dry bulk market is in the midst of a shift in demand patterns, which coupled with a tonnage supply overhang, has been facing headwinds over the ...
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- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- PTC India Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Planning Commission, India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- White Energy Company Limited
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
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