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Wednesday, 21 October 15
MARKET INSIGHT - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
 In today’s dry bulk market, both freight rates and asset prices are creating mixed feelings to seasoned ship owners, who tend to instinctively invest when asset values are low.
Although for a traditional ship-owner, buying a ship and supporting the investment for a period of time is part of being a ship-owner, these days the billion dollar question is "For how long would they have to do so?"
So far, 2015 is more bearish than 2012 which, for the most of us, was perceived as the previous low. When comparing the two, a big difference is that this year there is limited, if any, ordering in the Dry Bulk sector, which means that the industry has probably learned from past mistakes.
If we look at the Panamax / Kamsarmax sector, in 2012 the average BPI was at 963 points compared to the up to date average of 738 point in 2015. In dollar terms for the segment, the average TCA for 2012 was $7,700/day vs $5,900/day this year. SnP data for such ships built post 2000 in Korean and Japanese yards is not aligning with the respective freight trend though. In 2012 there were a total of 23 sales compared to an almost double of 44 transactions reported in the first nine months of 2015.
Another significant difference is that this year the majority of the buyers are traditional and experienced ship-owners, who see this downward spiral of the rates and prices as the right opportunity to invest. Back in 2012 a lot of equity funds, and in general non-traditional financial vehicles were entering and investing in either newbuilding or second hand assets.
Right after the bottom of 2012 we saw an increase on second hand transactions during 2013, which has been the highest up until this year. 2013 also had the highest BPI average and the highest TCA. In the end, the 2013 optimism proved short lived as in 2014 the market started to drop again leading to a small decline in sales for that year. Now what’s interesting in 2015, is that with the lowest BPI and TCA of the 4 year period, it looks like that by the end of it the number of transaction will surpass that of 2013.
Some might say that asset prices will drop further and that potential buyers should wait a bit longer. But let’s be honest; at the price levels we are seeing today, ships are already being priced low. Now if one is worried that by investing now they could miss on a potential additional discount of a 2-3% that might take place down the line, it’s their right to do so. The reality of the situation however, remains the same. When the market is low, investing makes sense. And it seems that people with the most experience out there are doing exactly that.
By Timos Papadimitriou
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Monday, 26 October 15
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS CLOSE DOWN 4.3% AS DEMAND CONCERNS WEIGH
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for 4Q’ 2015 delivery down just US$ 1.48 (3.02 %) per ton month over month.
A commodity sw ...
Sunday, 25 October 15
ANOTHER DISAPPOINTING WEEK FOR PANAMAX; INDEX FELL 5.4 PERCENT W-W
COALspot.com: The BDI was slightly up by 2.65 pct closing at 774 points mainly because of Cape index which was up by 10.85 pct closing at 1461 poin ...
Sunday, 25 October 15
DRY BULK SHIP OWNERS ARE LOOKING TO CHINA'S POLICIES FOR CUES ON FUTURE MARKET DEMAND - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
China’s hard or softer landing is a thing which has troubled dry bulk shipping for a couple of years now, as owners have been hit by the coun ...
Friday, 23 October 15
WILL INDIAN DOMESTIC COAL PRICES BE ABLE TO COMPETE IMPORTED COAL PRICES IF THE CURRENT TREND CONTINUES?
COALspot.com: The Most of the Indian end-users are waiting for last minute purchase to enjoy every drop in price. Coal procurement managers are als ...
Friday, 23 October 15
COAL PRODUCTION IN THE U.S. FOR THE WEEK ENDING OCTOBER 17 DECLINED FOR THE SECOND STRAIGHT WEEK
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 16.6 million shor ...
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- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- The University of Queensland
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
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