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Wednesday, 21 October 15
MARKET INSIGHT - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
 In today’s dry bulk market, both freight rates and asset prices are creating mixed feelings to seasoned ship owners, who tend to instinctively invest when asset values are low.
Although for a traditional ship-owner, buying a ship and supporting the investment for a period of time is part of being a ship-owner, these days the billion dollar question is "For how long would they have to do so?"
So far, 2015 is more bearish than 2012 which, for the most of us, was perceived as the previous low. When comparing the two, a big difference is that this year there is limited, if any, ordering in the Dry Bulk sector, which means that the industry has probably learned from past mistakes.
If we look at the Panamax / Kamsarmax sector, in 2012 the average BPI was at 963 points compared to the up to date average of 738 point in 2015. In dollar terms for the segment, the average TCA for 2012 was $7,700/day vs $5,900/day this year. SnP data for such ships built post 2000 in Korean and Japanese yards is not aligning with the respective freight trend though. In 2012 there were a total of 23 sales compared to an almost double of 44 transactions reported in the first nine months of 2015.
Another significant difference is that this year the majority of the buyers are traditional and experienced ship-owners, who see this downward spiral of the rates and prices as the right opportunity to invest. Back in 2012 a lot of equity funds, and in general non-traditional financial vehicles were entering and investing in either newbuilding or second hand assets.
Right after the bottom of 2012 we saw an increase on second hand transactions during 2013, which has been the highest up until this year. 2013 also had the highest BPI average and the highest TCA. In the end, the 2013 optimism proved short lived as in 2014 the market started to drop again leading to a small decline in sales for that year. Now what’s interesting in 2015, is that with the lowest BPI and TCA of the 4 year period, it looks like that by the end of it the number of transaction will surpass that of 2013.
Some might say that asset prices will drop further and that potential buyers should wait a bit longer. But let’s be honest; at the price levels we are seeing today, ships are already being priced low. Now if one is worried that by investing now they could miss on a potential additional discount of a 2-3% that might take place down the line, it’s their right to do so. The reality of the situation however, remains the same. When the market is low, investing makes sense. And it seems that people with the most experience out there are doing exactly that.
By Timos Papadimitriou
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Monday, 26 October 15
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS CLOSE DOWN 4.3% AS DEMAND CONCERNS WEIGH
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for 4Q’ 2015 delivery down just US$ 1.48 (3.02 %) per ton month over month.
A commodity sw ...
Sunday, 25 October 15
ANOTHER DISAPPOINTING WEEK FOR PANAMAX; INDEX FELL 5.4 PERCENT W-W
COALspot.com: The BDI was slightly up by 2.65 pct closing at 774 points mainly because of Cape index which was up by 10.85 pct closing at 1461 poin ...
Sunday, 25 October 15
DRY BULK SHIP OWNERS ARE LOOKING TO CHINA'S POLICIES FOR CUES ON FUTURE MARKET DEMAND - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
China’s hard or softer landing is a thing which has troubled dry bulk shipping for a couple of years now, as owners have been hit by the coun ...
Friday, 23 October 15
WILL INDIAN DOMESTIC COAL PRICES BE ABLE TO COMPETE IMPORTED COAL PRICES IF THE CURRENT TREND CONTINUES?
COALspot.com: The Most of the Indian end-users are waiting for last minute purchase to enjoy every drop in price. Coal procurement managers are als ...
Friday, 23 October 15
COAL PRODUCTION IN THE U.S. FOR THE WEEK ENDING OCTOBER 17 DECLINED FOR THE SECOND STRAIGHT WEEK
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 16.6 million shor ...
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- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
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- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- VISA Power Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
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- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- PTC India Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
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