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Wednesday, 21 October 15
MARKET INSIGHT - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
 In today’s dry bulk market, both freight rates and asset prices are creating mixed feelings to seasoned ship owners, who tend to instinctively invest when asset values are low.
Although for a traditional ship-owner, buying a ship and supporting the investment for a period of time is part of being a ship-owner, these days the billion dollar question is "For how long would they have to do so?"
So far, 2015 is more bearish than 2012 which, for the most of us, was perceived as the previous low. When comparing the two, a big difference is that this year there is limited, if any, ordering in the Dry Bulk sector, which means that the industry has probably learned from past mistakes.
If we look at the Panamax / Kamsarmax sector, in 2012 the average BPI was at 963 points compared to the up to date average of 738 point in 2015. In dollar terms for the segment, the average TCA for 2012 was $7,700/day vs $5,900/day this year. SnP data for such ships built post 2000 in Korean and Japanese yards is not aligning with the respective freight trend though. In 2012 there were a total of 23 sales compared to an almost double of 44 transactions reported in the first nine months of 2015.
Another significant difference is that this year the majority of the buyers are traditional and experienced ship-owners, who see this downward spiral of the rates and prices as the right opportunity to invest. Back in 2012 a lot of equity funds, and in general non-traditional financial vehicles were entering and investing in either newbuilding or second hand assets.
Right after the bottom of 2012 we saw an increase on second hand transactions during 2013, which has been the highest up until this year. 2013 also had the highest BPI average and the highest TCA. In the end, the 2013 optimism proved short lived as in 2014 the market started to drop again leading to a small decline in sales for that year. Now what’s interesting in 2015, is that with the lowest BPI and TCA of the 4 year period, it looks like that by the end of it the number of transaction will surpass that of 2013.
Some might say that asset prices will drop further and that potential buyers should wait a bit longer. But let’s be honest; at the price levels we are seeing today, ships are already being priced low. Now if one is worried that by investing now they could miss on a potential additional discount of a 2-3% that might take place down the line, it’s their right to do so. The reality of the situation however, remains the same. When the market is low, investing makes sense. And it seems that people with the most experience out there are doing exactly that.
By Timos Papadimitriou
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Friday, 16 October 15
MAJOR REVISION OF NYPE TIME CHAPTER PARTY - BIMCO
Major revision of NYPE time charter party promises to be both balanced and comprehensive
BIMCO has today jointly issued the first revision of ...
Friday, 16 October 15
FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP FOR Q4'15 DELIVERY FLAT WEEK OVER WEEK; DOWN 5.5 PER CENT M-M
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery Q4 2015 declined month on month and flat week over week.
The Q4 swap declined $ 2.23 (-5.51%) ...
Friday, 16 October 15
COAL PRODUCTION IN THE UNITED STATES DECREASED THIS WEEK; DOWN 11.3 PER CENT Y-Y, DOWN 3.5 PERCENT W-W
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 17.1 million shor ...
Friday, 16 October 15
INDONESIA REJOINING OPEC DESPITE BEING A NET IMPORTER OF PETROLEUM - EIA
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) notified Indonesia that it plans to accept the country's request to reactivate its ...
Thursday, 15 October 15
INDONESIA COAL PRICE REFERENCE FALLS FOR SEVEN STRAIGHT MONTH IN OCTOBER
COALspot.com - The Director General of Mineral and Coal of Indonesia once a again revised down Indonesian coal benchmark price this month.
The ...
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- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
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- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
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- The Treasury - Australian Government
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- Indian Energy Exchange, India
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- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
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- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
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- Romanian Commodities Exchange
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- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Australian Coal Association
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
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