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Wednesday, 21 October 15
MARKET INSIGHT - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
 In today’s dry bulk market, both freight rates and asset prices are creating mixed feelings to seasoned ship owners, who tend to instinctively invest when asset values are low.
Although for a traditional ship-owner, buying a ship and supporting the investment for a period of time is part of being a ship-owner, these days the billion dollar question is "For how long would they have to do so?"
So far, 2015 is more bearish than 2012 which, for the most of us, was perceived as the previous low. When comparing the two, a big difference is that this year there is limited, if any, ordering in the Dry Bulk sector, which means that the industry has probably learned from past mistakes.
If we look at the Panamax / Kamsarmax sector, in 2012 the average BPI was at 963 points compared to the up to date average of 738 point in 2015. In dollar terms for the segment, the average TCA for 2012 was $7,700/day vs $5,900/day this year. SnP data for such ships built post 2000 in Korean and Japanese yards is not aligning with the respective freight trend though. In 2012 there were a total of 23 sales compared to an almost double of 44 transactions reported in the first nine months of 2015.
Another significant difference is that this year the majority of the buyers are traditional and experienced ship-owners, who see this downward spiral of the rates and prices as the right opportunity to invest. Back in 2012 a lot of equity funds, and in general non-traditional financial vehicles were entering and investing in either newbuilding or second hand assets.
Right after the bottom of 2012 we saw an increase on second hand transactions during 2013, which has been the highest up until this year. 2013 also had the highest BPI average and the highest TCA. In the end, the 2013 optimism proved short lived as in 2014 the market started to drop again leading to a small decline in sales for that year. Now what’s interesting in 2015, is that with the lowest BPI and TCA of the 4 year period, it looks like that by the end of it the number of transaction will surpass that of 2013.
Some might say that asset prices will drop further and that potential buyers should wait a bit longer. But let’s be honest; at the price levels we are seeing today, ships are already being priced low. Now if one is worried that by investing now they could miss on a potential additional discount of a 2-3% that might take place down the line, it’s their right to do so. The reality of the situation however, remains the same. When the market is low, investing makes sense. And it seems that people with the most experience out there are doing exactly that.
By Timos Papadimitriou
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Friday, 16 October 15
MAJOR REVISION OF NYPE TIME CHAPTER PARTY - BIMCO
Major revision of NYPE time charter party promises to be both balanced and comprehensive
BIMCO has today jointly issued the first revision of ...
Friday, 16 October 15
FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP FOR Q4'15 DELIVERY FLAT WEEK OVER WEEK; DOWN 5.5 PER CENT M-M
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery Q4 2015 declined month on month and flat week over week.
The Q4 swap declined $ 2.23 (-5.51%) ...
Friday, 16 October 15
COAL PRODUCTION IN THE UNITED STATES DECREASED THIS WEEK; DOWN 11.3 PER CENT Y-Y, DOWN 3.5 PERCENT W-W
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 17.1 million shor ...
Friday, 16 October 15
INDONESIA REJOINING OPEC DESPITE BEING A NET IMPORTER OF PETROLEUM - EIA
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) notified Indonesia that it plans to accept the country's request to reactivate its ...
Thursday, 15 October 15
INDONESIA COAL PRICE REFERENCE FALLS FOR SEVEN STRAIGHT MONTH IN OCTOBER
COALspot.com - The Director General of Mineral and Coal of Indonesia once a again revised down Indonesian coal benchmark price this month.
The ...
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- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
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- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Australian Coal Association
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- PTC India Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
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