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Wednesday, 21 October 15
MARKET INSIGHT - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
 In today’s dry bulk market, both freight rates and asset prices are creating mixed feelings to seasoned ship owners, who tend to instinctively invest when asset values are low.
Although for a traditional ship-owner, buying a ship and supporting the investment for a period of time is part of being a ship-owner, these days the billion dollar question is "For how long would they have to do so?"
So far, 2015 is more bearish than 2012 which, for the most of us, was perceived as the previous low. When comparing the two, a big difference is that this year there is limited, if any, ordering in the Dry Bulk sector, which means that the industry has probably learned from past mistakes.
If we look at the Panamax / Kamsarmax sector, in 2012 the average BPI was at 963 points compared to the up to date average of 738 point in 2015. In dollar terms for the segment, the average TCA for 2012 was $7,700/day vs $5,900/day this year. SnP data for such ships built post 2000 in Korean and Japanese yards is not aligning with the respective freight trend though. In 2012 there were a total of 23 sales compared to an almost double of 44 transactions reported in the first nine months of 2015.
Another significant difference is that this year the majority of the buyers are traditional and experienced ship-owners, who see this downward spiral of the rates and prices as the right opportunity to invest. Back in 2012 a lot of equity funds, and in general non-traditional financial vehicles were entering and investing in either newbuilding or second hand assets.
Right after the bottom of 2012 we saw an increase on second hand transactions during 2013, which has been the highest up until this year. 2013 also had the highest BPI average and the highest TCA. In the end, the 2013 optimism proved short lived as in 2014 the market started to drop again leading to a small decline in sales for that year. Now what’s interesting in 2015, is that with the lowest BPI and TCA of the 4 year period, it looks like that by the end of it the number of transaction will surpass that of 2013.
Some might say that asset prices will drop further and that potential buyers should wait a bit longer. But let’s be honest; at the price levels we are seeing today, ships are already being priced low. Now if one is worried that by investing now they could miss on a potential additional discount of a 2-3% that might take place down the line, it’s their right to do so. The reality of the situation however, remains the same. When the market is low, investing makes sense. And it seems that people with the most experience out there are doing exactly that.
By Timos Papadimitriou
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Wednesday, 21 October 15
RUSSIA'S CARBO ONE COAL SALES TO HIT 50 MLN T/YR - JACQUELINE HOLMES
COALspot.com: Russia's Carbo One has become one of the world's leading physical coal traders with an annual volume approaching 50 million t ...
Wednesday, 21 October 15
INDONESIAN COAL MINER BUKIT ASAM POSTS POSITIVE PERFORMANCE DURING FIRST THREE QUARTERS OF 2015
COALspot.com: Indonesian publicly listed and state controlled coal miner PT. Bukit Asam has announced that, the company’s coal sales up 8 per ...
Wednesday, 21 October 15
LOWER DEMAND HIT Q1' 16 INDONESIA COAL SWAPS
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery Q4 2015 declined month on month and week over week.
The Q4 swap declined $ 1.88 (-4.71%) per t ...
Tuesday, 20 October 15
SHIPBROKER SEES CAPESIZE RATES EASILY REACHING $25,000/DAY BY YEAR-END : NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The future course of the dry bulk market has been troubling market participants for quite some time now, as the “elusive” freight rate ...
Tuesday, 20 October 15
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAPS SINK INTO RED THIS PAST WEEK
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q4' 2015 declined week over week and month over month.
The Q4 swap was down US$ ...
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- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- The University of Queensland
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Australian Coal Association
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- White Energy Company Limited
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
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