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Wednesday, 21 October 15
MARKET INSIGHT - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
 In today’s dry bulk market, both freight rates and asset prices are creating mixed feelings to seasoned ship owners, who tend to instinctively invest when asset values are low.
Although for a traditional ship-owner, buying a ship and supporting the investment for a period of time is part of being a ship-owner, these days the billion dollar question is "For how long would they have to do so?"
So far, 2015 is more bearish than 2012 which, for the most of us, was perceived as the previous low. When comparing the two, a big difference is that this year there is limited, if any, ordering in the Dry Bulk sector, which means that the industry has probably learned from past mistakes.
If we look at the Panamax / Kamsarmax sector, in 2012 the average BPI was at 963 points compared to the up to date average of 738 point in 2015. In dollar terms for the segment, the average TCA for 2012 was $7,700/day vs $5,900/day this year. SnP data for such ships built post 2000 in Korean and Japanese yards is not aligning with the respective freight trend though. In 2012 there were a total of 23 sales compared to an almost double of 44 transactions reported in the first nine months of 2015.
Another significant difference is that this year the majority of the buyers are traditional and experienced ship-owners, who see this downward spiral of the rates and prices as the right opportunity to invest. Back in 2012 a lot of equity funds, and in general non-traditional financial vehicles were entering and investing in either newbuilding or second hand assets.
Right after the bottom of 2012 we saw an increase on second hand transactions during 2013, which has been the highest up until this year. 2013 also had the highest BPI average and the highest TCA. In the end, the 2013 optimism proved short lived as in 2014 the market started to drop again leading to a small decline in sales for that year. Now what’s interesting in 2015, is that with the lowest BPI and TCA of the 4 year period, it looks like that by the end of it the number of transaction will surpass that of 2013.
Some might say that asset prices will drop further and that potential buyers should wait a bit longer. But let’s be honest; at the price levels we are seeing today, ships are already being priced low. Now if one is worried that by investing now they could miss on a potential additional discount of a 2-3% that might take place down the line, it’s their right to do so. The reality of the situation however, remains the same. When the market is low, investing makes sense. And it seems that people with the most experience out there are doing exactly that.
By Timos Papadimitriou
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Wednesday, 21 October 15
RUSSIA'S CARBO ONE COAL SALES TO HIT 50 MLN T/YR - JACQUELINE HOLMES
COALspot.com: Russia's Carbo One has become one of the world's leading physical coal traders with an annual volume approaching 50 million t ...
Wednesday, 21 October 15
INDONESIAN COAL MINER BUKIT ASAM POSTS POSITIVE PERFORMANCE DURING FIRST THREE QUARTERS OF 2015
COALspot.com: Indonesian publicly listed and state controlled coal miner PT. Bukit Asam has announced that, the company’s coal sales up 8 per ...
Wednesday, 21 October 15
LOWER DEMAND HIT Q1' 16 INDONESIA COAL SWAPS
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery Q4 2015 declined month on month and week over week.
The Q4 swap declined $ 1.88 (-4.71%) per t ...
Tuesday, 20 October 15
SHIPBROKER SEES CAPESIZE RATES EASILY REACHING $25,000/DAY BY YEAR-END : NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The future course of the dry bulk market has been troubling market participants for quite some time now, as the “elusive” freight rate ...
Tuesday, 20 October 15
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAPS SINK INTO RED THIS PAST WEEK
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q4' 2015 declined week over week and month over month.
The Q4 swap was down US$ ...
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- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Australian Coal Association
- MS Steel International - UAE
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
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