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Wednesday, 21 October 15
MARKET INSIGHT - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
 In today’s dry bulk market, both freight rates and asset prices are creating mixed feelings to seasoned ship owners, who tend to instinctively invest when asset values are low.
Although for a traditional ship-owner, buying a ship and supporting the investment for a period of time is part of being a ship-owner, these days the billion dollar question is "For how long would they have to do so?"
So far, 2015 is more bearish than 2012 which, for the most of us, was perceived as the previous low. When comparing the two, a big difference is that this year there is limited, if any, ordering in the Dry Bulk sector, which means that the industry has probably learned from past mistakes.
If we look at the Panamax / Kamsarmax sector, in 2012 the average BPI was at 963 points compared to the up to date average of 738 point in 2015. In dollar terms for the segment, the average TCA for 2012 was $7,700/day vs $5,900/day this year. SnP data for such ships built post 2000 in Korean and Japanese yards is not aligning with the respective freight trend though. In 2012 there were a total of 23 sales compared to an almost double of 44 transactions reported in the first nine months of 2015.
Another significant difference is that this year the majority of the buyers are traditional and experienced ship-owners, who see this downward spiral of the rates and prices as the right opportunity to invest. Back in 2012 a lot of equity funds, and in general non-traditional financial vehicles were entering and investing in either newbuilding or second hand assets.
Right after the bottom of 2012 we saw an increase on second hand transactions during 2013, which has been the highest up until this year. 2013 also had the highest BPI average and the highest TCA. In the end, the 2013 optimism proved short lived as in 2014 the market started to drop again leading to a small decline in sales for that year. Now what’s interesting in 2015, is that with the lowest BPI and TCA of the 4 year period, it looks like that by the end of it the number of transaction will surpass that of 2013.
Some might say that asset prices will drop further and that potential buyers should wait a bit longer. But let’s be honest; at the price levels we are seeing today, ships are already being priced low. Now if one is worried that by investing now they could miss on a potential additional discount of a 2-3% that might take place down the line, it’s their right to do so. The reality of the situation however, remains the same. When the market is low, investing makes sense. And it seems that people with the most experience out there are doing exactly that.
By Timos Papadimitriou
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Wednesday, 21 October 15
RUSSIA'S CARBO ONE COAL SALES TO HIT 50 MLN T/YR - JACQUELINE HOLMES
COALspot.com: Russia's Carbo One has become one of the world's leading physical coal traders with an annual volume approaching 50 million t ...
Wednesday, 21 October 15
INDONESIAN COAL MINER BUKIT ASAM POSTS POSITIVE PERFORMANCE DURING FIRST THREE QUARTERS OF 2015
COALspot.com: Indonesian publicly listed and state controlled coal miner PT. Bukit Asam has announced that, the company’s coal sales up 8 per ...
Wednesday, 21 October 15
LOWER DEMAND HIT Q1' 16 INDONESIA COAL SWAPS
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery Q4 2015 declined month on month and week over week.
The Q4 swap declined $ 1.88 (-4.71%) per t ...
Tuesday, 20 October 15
SHIPBROKER SEES CAPESIZE RATES EASILY REACHING $25,000/DAY BY YEAR-END : NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The future course of the dry bulk market has been troubling market participants for quite some time now, as the “elusive” freight rate ...
Tuesday, 20 October 15
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAPS SINK INTO RED THIS PAST WEEK
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q4' 2015 declined week over week and month over month.
The Q4 swap was down US$ ...
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- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Australian Coal Association
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Planning Commission, India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
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