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Wednesday, 21 October 15
MARKET INSIGHT - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
 In today’s dry bulk market, both freight rates and asset prices are creating mixed feelings to seasoned ship owners, who tend to instinctively invest when asset values are low.
Although for a traditional ship-owner, buying a ship and supporting the investment for a period of time is part of being a ship-owner, these days the billion dollar question is "For how long would they have to do so?"
So far, 2015 is more bearish than 2012 which, for the most of us, was perceived as the previous low. When comparing the two, a big difference is that this year there is limited, if any, ordering in the Dry Bulk sector, which means that the industry has probably learned from past mistakes.
If we look at the Panamax / Kamsarmax sector, in 2012 the average BPI was at 963 points compared to the up to date average of 738 point in 2015. In dollar terms for the segment, the average TCA for 2012 was $7,700/day vs $5,900/day this year. SnP data for such ships built post 2000 in Korean and Japanese yards is not aligning with the respective freight trend though. In 2012 there were a total of 23 sales compared to an almost double of 44 transactions reported in the first nine months of 2015.
Another significant difference is that this year the majority of the buyers are traditional and experienced ship-owners, who see this downward spiral of the rates and prices as the right opportunity to invest. Back in 2012 a lot of equity funds, and in general non-traditional financial vehicles were entering and investing in either newbuilding or second hand assets.
Right after the bottom of 2012 we saw an increase on second hand transactions during 2013, which has been the highest up until this year. 2013 also had the highest BPI average and the highest TCA. In the end, the 2013 optimism proved short lived as in 2014 the market started to drop again leading to a small decline in sales for that year. Now what’s interesting in 2015, is that with the lowest BPI and TCA of the 4 year period, it looks like that by the end of it the number of transaction will surpass that of 2013.
Some might say that asset prices will drop further and that potential buyers should wait a bit longer. But let’s be honest; at the price levels we are seeing today, ships are already being priced low. Now if one is worried that by investing now they could miss on a potential additional discount of a 2-3% that might take place down the line, it’s their right to do so. The reality of the situation however, remains the same. When the market is low, investing makes sense. And it seems that people with the most experience out there are doing exactly that.
By Timos Papadimitriou
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Thursday, 29 October 15
Q2' 16 FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP CLOSED US$ 37.40 PER TON; DECLINED 5.56 PER CENT M-M
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery Q4 2015 declined month on month and week over week.
The Q4 swap declined $ 2.13 (-5.34%) per t ...
Wednesday, 28 October 15
Q2'16 FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAP SEES FURTHER DECLINES
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q4' 2015 gained week over week and declined month over month.
The Q4 swap was d ...
Wednesday, 28 October 15
BDI INCREASE TOOK PLACE SOLELY ON THE BACK OF CAPESIZE PERFORMANCE, BUT........ - INTERMODAL
COALspot.com: The Dry Bulk market closed off the week noting a small improvement which nonetheless failed to lift sentiment, not only because ...
Tuesday, 27 October 15
Q1'16 API 5 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP DECLINE 6 PER CENT M-M
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q4’ 2015 delivery decreased $2 per ton (4.66%) month over month to US$ 40.93 per ton. The swa ...
Monday, 26 October 15
PORT OF NEWCASTLE SHIPPED 10.5 PER CENT LESS COAL IN SEPTEMBER, COMPARED TO AUGUST LOADING
COALspot.com: The Port of Newcastle, Australia’s major trading ports and the world’s largest coal export port, has shipped $1.161 billi ...
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- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Planning Commission, India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
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