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Wednesday, 21 October 15
MARKET INSIGHT - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
 In today’s dry bulk market, both freight rates and asset prices are creating mixed feelings to seasoned ship owners, who tend to instinctively invest when asset values are low.
Although for a traditional ship-owner, buying a ship and supporting the investment for a period of time is part of being a ship-owner, these days the billion dollar question is "For how long would they have to do so?"
So far, 2015 is more bearish than 2012 which, for the most of us, was perceived as the previous low. When comparing the two, a big difference is that this year there is limited, if any, ordering in the Dry Bulk sector, which means that the industry has probably learned from past mistakes.
If we look at the Panamax / Kamsarmax sector, in 2012 the average BPI was at 963 points compared to the up to date average of 738 point in 2015. In dollar terms for the segment, the average TCA for 2012 was $7,700/day vs $5,900/day this year. SnP data for such ships built post 2000 in Korean and Japanese yards is not aligning with the respective freight trend though. In 2012 there were a total of 23 sales compared to an almost double of 44 transactions reported in the first nine months of 2015.
Another significant difference is that this year the majority of the buyers are traditional and experienced ship-owners, who see this downward spiral of the rates and prices as the right opportunity to invest. Back in 2012 a lot of equity funds, and in general non-traditional financial vehicles were entering and investing in either newbuilding or second hand assets.
Right after the bottom of 2012 we saw an increase on second hand transactions during 2013, which has been the highest up until this year. 2013 also had the highest BPI average and the highest TCA. In the end, the 2013 optimism proved short lived as in 2014 the market started to drop again leading to a small decline in sales for that year. Now what’s interesting in 2015, is that with the lowest BPI and TCA of the 4 year period, it looks like that by the end of it the number of transaction will surpass that of 2013.
Some might say that asset prices will drop further and that potential buyers should wait a bit longer. But let’s be honest; at the price levels we are seeing today, ships are already being priced low. Now if one is worried that by investing now they could miss on a potential additional discount of a 2-3% that might take place down the line, it’s their right to do so. The reality of the situation however, remains the same. When the market is low, investing makes sense. And it seems that people with the most experience out there are doing exactly that.
By Timos Papadimitriou
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Thursday, 29 October 15
Q2' 16 FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP CLOSED US$ 37.40 PER TON; DECLINED 5.56 PER CENT M-M
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery Q4 2015 declined month on month and week over week.
The Q4 swap declined $ 2.13 (-5.34%) per t ...
Wednesday, 28 October 15
Q2'16 FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAP SEES FURTHER DECLINES
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q4' 2015 gained week over week and declined month over month.
The Q4 swap was d ...
Wednesday, 28 October 15
BDI INCREASE TOOK PLACE SOLELY ON THE BACK OF CAPESIZE PERFORMANCE, BUT........ - INTERMODAL
COALspot.com: The Dry Bulk market closed off the week noting a small improvement which nonetheless failed to lift sentiment, not only because ...
Tuesday, 27 October 15
Q1'16 API 5 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP DECLINE 6 PER CENT M-M
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q4’ 2015 delivery decreased $2 per ton (4.66%) month over month to US$ 40.93 per ton. The swa ...
Monday, 26 October 15
PORT OF NEWCASTLE SHIPPED 10.5 PER CENT LESS COAL IN SEPTEMBER, COMPARED TO AUGUST LOADING
COALspot.com: The Port of Newcastle, Australia’s major trading ports and the world’s largest coal export port, has shipped $1.161 billi ...
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- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- PTC India Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Planning Commission, India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
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