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Wednesday, 21 October 15
MARKET INSIGHT - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
 In today’s dry bulk market, both freight rates and asset prices are creating mixed feelings to seasoned ship owners, who tend to instinctively invest when asset values are low.
Although for a traditional ship-owner, buying a ship and supporting the investment for a period of time is part of being a ship-owner, these days the billion dollar question is "For how long would they have to do so?"
So far, 2015 is more bearish than 2012 which, for the most of us, was perceived as the previous low. When comparing the two, a big difference is that this year there is limited, if any, ordering in the Dry Bulk sector, which means that the industry has probably learned from past mistakes.
If we look at the Panamax / Kamsarmax sector, in 2012 the average BPI was at 963 points compared to the up to date average of 738 point in 2015. In dollar terms for the segment, the average TCA for 2012 was $7,700/day vs $5,900/day this year. SnP data for such ships built post 2000 in Korean and Japanese yards is not aligning with the respective freight trend though. In 2012 there were a total of 23 sales compared to an almost double of 44 transactions reported in the first nine months of 2015.
Another significant difference is that this year the majority of the buyers are traditional and experienced ship-owners, who see this downward spiral of the rates and prices as the right opportunity to invest. Back in 2012 a lot of equity funds, and in general non-traditional financial vehicles were entering and investing in either newbuilding or second hand assets.
Right after the bottom of 2012 we saw an increase on second hand transactions during 2013, which has been the highest up until this year. 2013 also had the highest BPI average and the highest TCA. In the end, the 2013 optimism proved short lived as in 2014 the market started to drop again leading to a small decline in sales for that year. Now what’s interesting in 2015, is that with the lowest BPI and TCA of the 4 year period, it looks like that by the end of it the number of transaction will surpass that of 2013.
Some might say that asset prices will drop further and that potential buyers should wait a bit longer. But let’s be honest; at the price levels we are seeing today, ships are already being priced low. Now if one is worried that by investing now they could miss on a potential additional discount of a 2-3% that might take place down the line, it’s their right to do so. The reality of the situation however, remains the same. When the market is low, investing makes sense. And it seems that people with the most experience out there are doing exactly that.
By Timos Papadimitriou
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Saturday, 31 October 15
ADARO ENERGY'S CORE EARNINGS DECLINE 21 PER CENT FOR THE NINE MONTHS PERIOD TO SEPTEMBER 2015
COALspot.com: Adaro Energy's core earnings decline 21% to US$228 Million for first 9months of this year compared to the same period last year. ...
Friday, 30 October 15
INDONESIA'S COAL EXPORTS DROP ON LOW PRICES - THE JAKARTA POST
Indonesia's coal exports significantly dropped in the first nine months of the year as coal companies continued to suffer from low prices in ad ...
Friday, 30 October 15
CHINESE MINERAL IMPORTS: MOVING ON FROM INDONESIA? - CLARKSONS
China has accounted for almost 90% of global imports of nickel ore and bauxite in recent years and was therefore heavily hit by the Indonesian mine ...
Friday, 30 October 15
COAL PRODUCTION IN THE UNITED STATES INCREASED THIS WEEK - EIA
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 17.5 million shor ...
Thursday, 29 October 15
IRAN'S RETURN TO OIL MARKETS WILL HAVE TEMPERED IMPACT FOR THE TANKER SHIPPING INDUSTRY - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
While many analysts appear to be fearful of a potential incremental rise in tanker ships’ supply, as a result of the imminent return of Iran ...
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- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
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- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- The University of Queensland
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Australian Coal Association
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
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