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Wednesday, 21 October 15
MARKET INSIGHT - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
 In today’s dry bulk market, both freight rates and asset prices are creating mixed feelings to seasoned ship owners, who tend to instinctively invest when asset values are low.
Although for a traditional ship-owner, buying a ship and supporting the investment for a period of time is part of being a ship-owner, these days the billion dollar question is "For how long would they have to do so?"
So far, 2015 is more bearish than 2012 which, for the most of us, was perceived as the previous low. When comparing the two, a big difference is that this year there is limited, if any, ordering in the Dry Bulk sector, which means that the industry has probably learned from past mistakes.
If we look at the Panamax / Kamsarmax sector, in 2012 the average BPI was at 963 points compared to the up to date average of 738 point in 2015. In dollar terms for the segment, the average TCA for 2012 was $7,700/day vs $5,900/day this year. SnP data for such ships built post 2000 in Korean and Japanese yards is not aligning with the respective freight trend though. In 2012 there were a total of 23 sales compared to an almost double of 44 transactions reported in the first nine months of 2015.
Another significant difference is that this year the majority of the buyers are traditional and experienced ship-owners, who see this downward spiral of the rates and prices as the right opportunity to invest. Back in 2012 a lot of equity funds, and in general non-traditional financial vehicles were entering and investing in either newbuilding or second hand assets.
Right after the bottom of 2012 we saw an increase on second hand transactions during 2013, which has been the highest up until this year. 2013 also had the highest BPI average and the highest TCA. In the end, the 2013 optimism proved short lived as in 2014 the market started to drop again leading to a small decline in sales for that year. Now what’s interesting in 2015, is that with the lowest BPI and TCA of the 4 year period, it looks like that by the end of it the number of transaction will surpass that of 2013.
Some might say that asset prices will drop further and that potential buyers should wait a bit longer. But let’s be honest; at the price levels we are seeing today, ships are already being priced low. Now if one is worried that by investing now they could miss on a potential additional discount of a 2-3% that might take place down the line, it’s their right to do so. The reality of the situation however, remains the same. When the market is low, investing makes sense. And it seems that people with the most experience out there are doing exactly that.
By Timos Papadimitriou
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Tuesday, 03 November 15
API 5 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAPS DECLINE CONTINUES
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q4’ 2015 delivery slid $1.84 per ton (4.34%) month over month to US$ 40.54 per ton. The swap ...
Tuesday, 03 November 15
EU OIL MAJORS FACE FURTHER EARNINGS DECLINE IN Q415 - FITCH RATINGS
The sharp drop in major European oil companies' third-quarter profits is likely to be extended in the fourth quarter as refining margins, which ...
Monday, 02 November 15
DESPITE CHALLENGING MARKET CONDITIONS, ADARO LOWERS COSTS, DEBT AND DELIVERS STRONG FREE CASH FLOW
COALspot.com: Despite challenging market conditions, Adaro lowers costs, lowers debt and delivers strong free cash flow.
The Indonesia’s ...
Monday, 02 November 15
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS CLOSED ON A WEAK NOTE
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for 4Q’ 2015 delivery declined US$ 1.81(3.71 %) per ton month over month.
A commodity swap ...
Sunday, 01 November 15
THE FREIGHT MARKET SENTIMENT REMAINS WEAK
This week’s freight market sentiment remains weak compared to last week.
The Baltic Dry Index (BDI), an economic indicator issued daily ...
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- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Planning Commission, India
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- Parliament of New Zealand
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- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
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- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
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- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
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- Romanian Commodities Exchange
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- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
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- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- The University of Queensland
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Australian Coal Association
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
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