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Wednesday, 21 October 15
MARKET INSIGHT - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
 In today’s dry bulk market, both freight rates and asset prices are creating mixed feelings to seasoned ship owners, who tend to instinctively invest when asset values are low.
Although for a traditional ship-owner, buying a ship and supporting the investment for a period of time is part of being a ship-owner, these days the billion dollar question is "For how long would they have to do so?"
So far, 2015 is more bearish than 2012 which, for the most of us, was perceived as the previous low. When comparing the two, a big difference is that this year there is limited, if any, ordering in the Dry Bulk sector, which means that the industry has probably learned from past mistakes.
If we look at the Panamax / Kamsarmax sector, in 2012 the average BPI was at 963 points compared to the up to date average of 738 point in 2015. In dollar terms for the segment, the average TCA for 2012 was $7,700/day vs $5,900/day this year. SnP data for such ships built post 2000 in Korean and Japanese yards is not aligning with the respective freight trend though. In 2012 there were a total of 23 sales compared to an almost double of 44 transactions reported in the first nine months of 2015.
Another significant difference is that this year the majority of the buyers are traditional and experienced ship-owners, who see this downward spiral of the rates and prices as the right opportunity to invest. Back in 2012 a lot of equity funds, and in general non-traditional financial vehicles were entering and investing in either newbuilding or second hand assets.
Right after the bottom of 2012 we saw an increase on second hand transactions during 2013, which has been the highest up until this year. 2013 also had the highest BPI average and the highest TCA. In the end, the 2013 optimism proved short lived as in 2014 the market started to drop again leading to a small decline in sales for that year. Now what’s interesting in 2015, is that with the lowest BPI and TCA of the 4 year period, it looks like that by the end of it the number of transaction will surpass that of 2013.
Some might say that asset prices will drop further and that potential buyers should wait a bit longer. But let’s be honest; at the price levels we are seeing today, ships are already being priced low. Now if one is worried that by investing now they could miss on a potential additional discount of a 2-3% that might take place down the line, it’s their right to do so. The reality of the situation however, remains the same. When the market is low, investing makes sense. And it seems that people with the most experience out there are doing exactly that.
By Timos Papadimitriou
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Thursday, 05 November 15
Q2'16 INDO THERMAL COAL SWAP CONTRACT FOB INDONESIA FALLS TO $39.90/T
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery Q4 2015 declined month on month and week over week. Price of coal seen no improvements this past we ...
Thursday, 05 November 15
INFORMATION EXCHANGE GROUP'S LATAM MINING SECURITY SUMMIT 2016 - INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE ON TECHNOLOGY SECURITY IN MINING
Press Release: LATAM Mining Security Summit 2016 is a carefully designed event that will bring together the leading stakeholders in the mining sect ...
Wednesday, 04 November 15
MARKET INSIGHT - CHRISTOPHER THOMAS WHITTY
Four companies dominate global iron ore production, namely; BHP Billiton, Vale, Rio Tinto, and Fortescue Metals Group. Together these companies con ...
Wednesday, 04 November 15
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAPS GAIN W-W AND M-M
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q4' 2015 gained week over week and month over month.
The Q4 swap was up US$ 1.4 ...
Tuesday, 03 November 15
THE DISCHARGE OF CARGO IN THE PRC WITHOUT ORIGINAL BILLS OF LADING - CLYDE&CO
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
On occasions, a vessel may arrive at a port and be ready to discharge but the original bills of lading in respect of the ...
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- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Economic Council, Georgia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- White Energy Company Limited
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Parliament of New Zealand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- PTC India Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
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