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Wednesday, 21 October 15
MARKET INSIGHT - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
 In today’s dry bulk market, both freight rates and asset prices are creating mixed feelings to seasoned ship owners, who tend to instinctively invest when asset values are low.
Although for a traditional ship-owner, buying a ship and supporting the investment for a period of time is part of being a ship-owner, these days the billion dollar question is "For how long would they have to do so?"
So far, 2015 is more bearish than 2012 which, for the most of us, was perceived as the previous low. When comparing the two, a big difference is that this year there is limited, if any, ordering in the Dry Bulk sector, which means that the industry has probably learned from past mistakes.
If we look at the Panamax / Kamsarmax sector, in 2012 the average BPI was at 963 points compared to the up to date average of 738 point in 2015. In dollar terms for the segment, the average TCA for 2012 was $7,700/day vs $5,900/day this year. SnP data for such ships built post 2000 in Korean and Japanese yards is not aligning with the respective freight trend though. In 2012 there were a total of 23 sales compared to an almost double of 44 transactions reported in the first nine months of 2015.
Another significant difference is that this year the majority of the buyers are traditional and experienced ship-owners, who see this downward spiral of the rates and prices as the right opportunity to invest. Back in 2012 a lot of equity funds, and in general non-traditional financial vehicles were entering and investing in either newbuilding or second hand assets.
Right after the bottom of 2012 we saw an increase on second hand transactions during 2013, which has been the highest up until this year. 2013 also had the highest BPI average and the highest TCA. In the end, the 2013 optimism proved short lived as in 2014 the market started to drop again leading to a small decline in sales for that year. Now what’s interesting in 2015, is that with the lowest BPI and TCA of the 4 year period, it looks like that by the end of it the number of transaction will surpass that of 2013.
Some might say that asset prices will drop further and that potential buyers should wait a bit longer. But let’s be honest; at the price levels we are seeing today, ships are already being priced low. Now if one is worried that by investing now they could miss on a potential additional discount of a 2-3% that might take place down the line, it’s their right to do so. The reality of the situation however, remains the same. When the market is low, investing makes sense. And it seems that people with the most experience out there are doing exactly that.
By Timos Papadimitriou
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Monday, 09 November 15
CFR SOUTH CHINA THERMAL COAL SWAP FOR Q3' 16 CONTRACT DECLINED US$ 4 PER TON
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q1’ 2016 delivery declined US$ 4.35 (9.03 %) per ton month over month.
A commodity swa ...
Monday, 09 November 15
INDIAN THERMAL COAL IMPORTS SURGED 18%; COKING COAL 6.31% DURING APRIL-OCTOBER: BUSINESS-STANDARD
Indian thermal coal imports surged 18% at the country's top 12 major ports to 55.90 million tonnes (MT) in the first seven months of the curren ...
Sunday, 08 November 15
THE FREIGHT MARKET KEEP DROPPING THIS WEEK - VISTAAR
COALspot.com: The freight market keep dropping this week.
The BDI down 12.48 percent week on week and closed at 631 points on 6 November 2015. ...
Sunday, 08 November 15
CAPESIZE FREIGHT RATES IN AUSTRALIA-CHINA ROUTES OVER 50% CHEAPER THAN BRAZIL-CHINA ROUTE - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
China’s mining and steel industries are facing tectonic shifts over the past couple of years, with the country’s limiting of coal use, ...
Friday, 06 November 15
COAL PRODUCTION IN THE U.S. FELL SHARPLY FOR THE WEEK ENDING OCTOBER 31
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 16.6 million shor ...
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- Eastern Energy - Thailand
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- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
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- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- The University of Queensland
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
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- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
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- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
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