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Wednesday, 21 October 15
MARKET INSIGHT - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
 In today’s dry bulk market, both freight rates and asset prices are creating mixed feelings to seasoned ship owners, who tend to instinctively invest when asset values are low.
Although for a traditional ship-owner, buying a ship and supporting the investment for a period of time is part of being a ship-owner, these days the billion dollar question is "For how long would they have to do so?"
So far, 2015 is more bearish than 2012 which, for the most of us, was perceived as the previous low. When comparing the two, a big difference is that this year there is limited, if any, ordering in the Dry Bulk sector, which means that the industry has probably learned from past mistakes.
If we look at the Panamax / Kamsarmax sector, in 2012 the average BPI was at 963 points compared to the up to date average of 738 point in 2015. In dollar terms for the segment, the average TCA for 2012 was $7,700/day vs $5,900/day this year. SnP data for such ships built post 2000 in Korean and Japanese yards is not aligning with the respective freight trend though. In 2012 there were a total of 23 sales compared to an almost double of 44 transactions reported in the first nine months of 2015.
Another significant difference is that this year the majority of the buyers are traditional and experienced ship-owners, who see this downward spiral of the rates and prices as the right opportunity to invest. Back in 2012 a lot of equity funds, and in general non-traditional financial vehicles were entering and investing in either newbuilding or second hand assets.
Right after the bottom of 2012 we saw an increase on second hand transactions during 2013, which has been the highest up until this year. 2013 also had the highest BPI average and the highest TCA. In the end, the 2013 optimism proved short lived as in 2014 the market started to drop again leading to a small decline in sales for that year. Now what’s interesting in 2015, is that with the lowest BPI and TCA of the 4 year period, it looks like that by the end of it the number of transaction will surpass that of 2013.
Some might say that asset prices will drop further and that potential buyers should wait a bit longer. But let’s be honest; at the price levels we are seeing today, ships are already being priced low. Now if one is worried that by investing now they could miss on a potential additional discount of a 2-3% that might take place down the line, it’s their right to do so. The reality of the situation however, remains the same. When the market is low, investing makes sense. And it seems that people with the most experience out there are doing exactly that.
By Timos Papadimitriou
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Wednesday, 11 November 15
Q3' 16 RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAP LOST 15.47% SINCE 6 AUGUST; 18.65% SINCE 6 MAY
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q1’ 2016 declined week over week and month over month.
The Q1’ 2016 &nb ...
Wednesday, 11 November 15
VESSEL VALUES ARE DOWN BY AT LEAST 20% SINCE MID-AUGUST - INTERMODAL
I had promised not to spend another broker’s insight focusing on the dry bulk side. However, the sale of the M/V Churchill Bulker (179,362 dw ...
Tuesday, 10 November 15
SELF-HEATING OF COAL HAS EMPHASISED THE IMPORTANCE OF CHECKING THE ACCURACY OF SHIPPER'S DECLARATIONS - GARD
Recent incidents involving self-heating of coal has emphasised the importance of checking the accuracy of shipper’s declarations for all type ...
Tuesday, 10 November 15
API 5 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP SLIDES CONTINUE
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q1’ 2016 delivery slid $3.55 per ton (8.50%) month over month to US$ 38.20 per ton. The swap ...
Monday, 09 November 15
BUNKER PRICES TO KEEP SLIDING THIS WEEK, EXPERT SAYS - MARINE BUNKER EXCHANGE
The oil price volatility has continued this week. Two dollars up one day and the next day two dollars down. The oil market has been trading on the ...
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- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- The University of Queensland
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- White Energy Company Limited
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Australian Coal Association
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
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