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Wednesday, 23 September 15
CAPESIZE: SPOT RATES HAVE INCREASED MORE THAN 70 PER CENT DURING LAST WEEK
 Dry Bulk owners, always look at September as the time that the market “signals” what lies ahead for the remainder of the year. The Chinese iron ore restocking that traditionally picks up during Q4, is currently stealing the spotlight. The Capesize summer rally proved to be short-lived, with the average rate for the segment losing most of its gains and settling around $8,000/day. Spot rates have nonetheless increased more than 70% during last week.
Looking at the short term momentum, this appears to be favoring another boost for the big bulkers. Iron ore stockpiles at Chinese ports are currently well below the five year average. The 14% drop in imports that took place in August, has at the same time created an additional “gap” to be filled. The ratio of the present inventory of iron ore over steel production, which is also well below the five-year average, points out to a bigger than usual portion of iron ore stockpiles being consumed by Chinese mills and turned into steel. Despite the fact that domestic steel consumption has been faltering as of last year, production has found support in exports, which are up a whopping 27% in the first 8 months of the year. With low inventories of iron ore, steel production inching up last month, and a very strong trend of steel exports year to date, everything points out to another round of stockpiling and possibly another mini Capesize rally in the way, “mini” being the operative word here.
Although rates appear set to advance further in the following days, I am skeptic in regards to how long positive momentum can be sustained. The reality is that despite the decrease in Chinese iron ore production levels, these are still considerable given the current steel output in the country, setting a limit in imports and consequently the spikes Cape rates enjoy. As steel producers in China turn to higher quality imported iron ore and local iron ore producers exit the market amidst low prices, things certainly move towards the “right” direction but we are hardly there yet.
Additionally and even most importantly, China remains the top steel consuming market worldwide and despite the fact that shipping its steel to India and other SE Asian countries might be offsetting part of the gap created by the domestic consumption slowdown, it doesn’t even get close to filling it. With Chinese steel consumption and production expected to shift into an even lower gear, the amount of iron ore required by Chinese producers going forward is set to keep less and less dwt busy. Muddy waters for Capes.
By Eva Tzima
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 15 September 15
API 5 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP FOR 4Q' 2015 DELIVERY CLOSED AT $42.71 PER TON ON 11 SEPT, SGX DATA SHOWS
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for 4Q’ 2015 delivery declined $0.94 per MT (-2.15%) month over month to US$ 42.71 per mt. The sw ...
Monday, 14 September 15
Q1'16 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP DECLINED $1.80 PMT M-M
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for 4Q’ 2015 delivery declined just US$ 1.62 (3.21 %) per MT month over month.
A commodity ...
Monday, 14 September 15
MOODY'S LOWERS COMMODITY PRICE ASSUMPTIONS ON MACRO, INDUSTRY FACTORS
COALspot.com: Moody's Investors Service has lowered its base metal price assumptions for 2015-17 as slowing growth in China, lower oil prices, ...
Sunday, 13 September 15
FREIGHT RATES ARE EXPECTED TO BE SOFT NEXT WEEK
COALspot.com: The BDI decreased further by 6.51 per cent or 57 points since last Friday and closed at 818 on 11 September 2015 while the cape index ...
Friday, 11 September 15
SHIPPING MARKETS SHOW MIXED EMOTIONS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The dry bulk market has managed to show marginal improvements over the past few days, with the Capesize segment faring better than smaller dry bulk ...
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- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Planning Commission, India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- The University of Queensland
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
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