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Wednesday, 23 September 15
CAPESIZE: SPOT RATES HAVE INCREASED MORE THAN 70 PER CENT DURING LAST WEEK
 Dry Bulk owners, always look at September as the time that the market “signals” what lies ahead for the remainder of the year. The Chinese iron ore restocking that traditionally picks up during Q4, is currently stealing the spotlight. The Capesize summer rally proved to be short-lived, with the average rate for the segment losing most of its gains and settling around $8,000/day. Spot rates have nonetheless increased more than 70% during last week.
Looking at the short term momentum, this appears to be favoring another boost for the big bulkers. Iron ore stockpiles at Chinese ports are currently well below the five year average. The 14% drop in imports that took place in August, has at the same time created an additional “gap” to be filled. The ratio of the present inventory of iron ore over steel production, which is also well below the five-year average, points out to a bigger than usual portion of iron ore stockpiles being consumed by Chinese mills and turned into steel. Despite the fact that domestic steel consumption has been faltering as of last year, production has found support in exports, which are up a whopping 27% in the first 8 months of the year. With low inventories of iron ore, steel production inching up last month, and a very strong trend of steel exports year to date, everything points out to another round of stockpiling and possibly another mini Capesize rally in the way, “mini” being the operative word here.
Although rates appear set to advance further in the following days, I am skeptic in regards to how long positive momentum can be sustained. The reality is that despite the decrease in Chinese iron ore production levels, these are still considerable given the current steel output in the country, setting a limit in imports and consequently the spikes Cape rates enjoy. As steel producers in China turn to higher quality imported iron ore and local iron ore producers exit the market amidst low prices, things certainly move towards the “right” direction but we are hardly there yet.
Additionally and even most importantly, China remains the top steel consuming market worldwide and despite the fact that shipping its steel to India and other SE Asian countries might be offsetting part of the gap created by the domestic consumption slowdown, it doesn’t even get close to filling it. With Chinese steel consumption and production expected to shift into an even lower gear, the amount of iron ore required by Chinese producers going forward is set to keep less and less dwt busy. Muddy waters for Capes.
By Eva Tzima
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 17 September 15
MARKET INSIGHT - KONSTANTINOS KONTOMICHIS
Having experienced, as it was much anticipated, a poor 1st half combined with negative forecasts, summer, in sharp contrast, proved to be more hope ...
Wednesday, 16 September 15
SLOWER GROWTH IN WORLD COAL DEMAND AND LOWER INTERNATIONAL COAL PRICES LED A DECLINE IN INDONESIAN COAL PRODUCTION
COALspot.com: Slower growth in world coal demand particularly China and lower international coal prices have led to a decline in Indonesian coal pr ...
Wednesday, 16 September 15
HIGHER TAXES COULD LEAD GREEK SHIP OWNERS OUT OF THE COUNTRY - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
A potential taxation overhaul of the shipping industry in Hellas, which could see the loss of particular tax benefits for ship owners, could lead t ...
Tuesday, 15 September 15
WORLD SEABORNE TRADE: ENTERING INTO A ROLE REVERSAL? - CLARKSONS
Over the past decade, world seaborne trade growth has been dominated by dry bulk and container trade. However, developments in the global economy t ...
Tuesday, 15 September 15
Q2'16 RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAPS DIP TO $ 51.10 PER TON
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery 4Q' 2015 declined week over week and month over month.
The 4Q swap was down US$ ...
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- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- The University of Queensland
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- PTC India Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
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