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Wednesday, 23 September 15
CAPESIZE: SPOT RATES HAVE INCREASED MORE THAN 70 PER CENT DURING LAST WEEK
 Dry Bulk owners, always look at September as the time that the market “signals” what lies ahead for the remainder of the year. The Chinese iron ore restocking that traditionally picks up during Q4, is currently stealing the spotlight. The Capesize summer rally proved to be short-lived, with the average rate for the segment losing most of its gains and settling around $8,000/day. Spot rates have nonetheless increased more than 70% during last week.
Looking at the short term momentum, this appears to be favoring another boost for the big bulkers. Iron ore stockpiles at Chinese ports are currently well below the five year average. The 14% drop in imports that took place in August, has at the same time created an additional “gap” to be filled. The ratio of the present inventory of iron ore over steel production, which is also well below the five-year average, points out to a bigger than usual portion of iron ore stockpiles being consumed by Chinese mills and turned into steel. Despite the fact that domestic steel consumption has been faltering as of last year, production has found support in exports, which are up a whopping 27% in the first 8 months of the year. With low inventories of iron ore, steel production inching up last month, and a very strong trend of steel exports year to date, everything points out to another round of stockpiling and possibly another mini Capesize rally in the way, “mini” being the operative word here.
Although rates appear set to advance further in the following days, I am skeptic in regards to how long positive momentum can be sustained. The reality is that despite the decrease in Chinese iron ore production levels, these are still considerable given the current steel output in the country, setting a limit in imports and consequently the spikes Cape rates enjoy. As steel producers in China turn to higher quality imported iron ore and local iron ore producers exit the market amidst low prices, things certainly move towards the “right” direction but we are hardly there yet.
Additionally and even most importantly, China remains the top steel consuming market worldwide and despite the fact that shipping its steel to India and other SE Asian countries might be offsetting part of the gap created by the domestic consumption slowdown, it doesn’t even get close to filling it. With Chinese steel consumption and production expected to shift into an even lower gear, the amount of iron ore required by Chinese producers going forward is set to keep less and less dwt busy. Muddy waters for Capes.
By Eva Tzima
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Sunday, 20 September 15
BALTIC CAPE INDEX ROSE 66.52 PER CENT AND STAND NOW AT 1995 POINTS
COALspot.com: The BDI (Baltic Dry Index) rose 17.35 per cent week over week to 960 points on Friday mainly driven by the Capesize segment. The Cape ...
Friday, 18 September 15
SHIPPING AND THE FED RATE DECISION: FINANCING COSTS COULD RISE EVEN HIGHER - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Regardless of the FED’s decision to raise rates, shipping stands to be influenced by the decision. Shipbroker Allied Shipbroking noted this w ...
Friday, 18 September 15
U.S. COAL PRODUCTION DECLINED 6.7 PER CENT W-W: EIA
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 17.4 million shor ...
Thursday, 17 September 15
COALSPOT HAS LAUNCHED NEW THERMAL COAL INDICES FOR INDONESIAN COAL
COALspot.com has today launched real-time CS (i) Coal Indices.
The Indices represents 3800 kcal/kg GAR, 4200 kcal/kg GAR, 5000 kcal/kg GAR a ...
Thursday, 17 September 15
LOW DEMAND PUSH COAL SWAP DOWN
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery 4Q 2015 declined month on month and gain week over week.
The 4Q swap declined $ 1.77 (-4.17%) ...
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- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- PTC India Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Planning Commission, India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Australian Coal Association
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
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