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Wednesday, 23 September 15
CAPESIZE: SPOT RATES HAVE INCREASED MORE THAN 70 PER CENT DURING LAST WEEK
 Dry Bulk owners, always look at September as the time that the market “signals” what lies ahead for the remainder of the year. The Chinese iron ore restocking that traditionally picks up during Q4, is currently stealing the spotlight. The Capesize summer rally proved to be short-lived, with the average rate for the segment losing most of its gains and settling around $8,000/day. Spot rates have nonetheless increased more than 70% during last week.
Looking at the short term momentum, this appears to be favoring another boost for the big bulkers. Iron ore stockpiles at Chinese ports are currently well below the five year average. The 14% drop in imports that took place in August, has at the same time created an additional “gap” to be filled. The ratio of the present inventory of iron ore over steel production, which is also well below the five-year average, points out to a bigger than usual portion of iron ore stockpiles being consumed by Chinese mills and turned into steel. Despite the fact that domestic steel consumption has been faltering as of last year, production has found support in exports, which are up a whopping 27% in the first 8 months of the year. With low inventories of iron ore, steel production inching up last month, and a very strong trend of steel exports year to date, everything points out to another round of stockpiling and possibly another mini Capesize rally in the way, “mini” being the operative word here.
Although rates appear set to advance further in the following days, I am skeptic in regards to how long positive momentum can be sustained. The reality is that despite the decrease in Chinese iron ore production levels, these are still considerable given the current steel output in the country, setting a limit in imports and consequently the spikes Cape rates enjoy. As steel producers in China turn to higher quality imported iron ore and local iron ore producers exit the market amidst low prices, things certainly move towards the “right” direction but we are hardly there yet.
Additionally and even most importantly, China remains the top steel consuming market worldwide and despite the fact that shipping its steel to India and other SE Asian countries might be offsetting part of the gap created by the domestic consumption slowdown, it doesn’t even get close to filling it. With Chinese steel consumption and production expected to shift into an even lower gear, the amount of iron ore required by Chinese producers going forward is set to keep less and less dwt busy. Muddy waters for Capes.
By Eva Tzima
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 08 September 15
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAPS CONTINUE TO SHOW DECLINING TREND
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery 4Q' 2015 declined week over week and month over month.
The 4Q swap was down US$ ...
Tuesday, 08 September 15
GANGAVARAM PORT IN INDIA DISCHARGES RECORD 112,599 MT OF STEAM COAL IN 24 HOURS
COALspot.com: Gangavaram Port, an all weather, multipurpose port with water depth up-to 21 meters, capable of handling fully laden Super Cap ...
Monday, 07 September 15
THE MINE OF THE FUTURE WILL HAVE ONLY TWO EMPLOYEES, A MAN AND A DOG - SCOTT MCGOWAN
"The Technology and Innovation in Mining 2015" production team at Information Exchange Group interviewed Scott Mcgowan, Director, Global ...
Monday, 07 September 15
FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP FOR Q2' 16 DELIVERY CLOSED US CENTS 25 LOWER COMPARED TO Q4' 15
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for 4Q’ 2015 delivery declined $0.73 per MT (-1.68%) month over month to US$ 42.65 per mt. The sw ...
Monday, 07 September 15
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS ROSE 1.1 PER CENT WEEK OVER WEEK
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for 4Q’ 2015 delivery declined just US$ 1.52 (3 %) per MT month over month.
A commodity sw ...
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- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Australian Coal Association
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Planning Commission, India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
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