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Wednesday, 23 September 15
CAPESIZE: SPOT RATES HAVE INCREASED MORE THAN 70 PER CENT DURING LAST WEEK
 Dry Bulk owners, always look at September as the time that the market “signals” what lies ahead for the remainder of the year. The Chinese iron ore restocking that traditionally picks up during Q4, is currently stealing the spotlight. The Capesize summer rally proved to be short-lived, with the average rate for the segment losing most of its gains and settling around $8,000/day. Spot rates have nonetheless increased more than 70% during last week.
Looking at the short term momentum, this appears to be favoring another boost for the big bulkers. Iron ore stockpiles at Chinese ports are currently well below the five year average. The 14% drop in imports that took place in August, has at the same time created an additional “gap” to be filled. The ratio of the present inventory of iron ore over steel production, which is also well below the five-year average, points out to a bigger than usual portion of iron ore stockpiles being consumed by Chinese mills and turned into steel. Despite the fact that domestic steel consumption has been faltering as of last year, production has found support in exports, which are up a whopping 27% in the first 8 months of the year. With low inventories of iron ore, steel production inching up last month, and a very strong trend of steel exports year to date, everything points out to another round of stockpiling and possibly another mini Capesize rally in the way, “mini” being the operative word here.
Although rates appear set to advance further in the following days, I am skeptic in regards to how long positive momentum can be sustained. The reality is that despite the decrease in Chinese iron ore production levels, these are still considerable given the current steel output in the country, setting a limit in imports and consequently the spikes Cape rates enjoy. As steel producers in China turn to higher quality imported iron ore and local iron ore producers exit the market amidst low prices, things certainly move towards the “right” direction but we are hardly there yet.
Additionally and even most importantly, China remains the top steel consuming market worldwide and despite the fact that shipping its steel to India and other SE Asian countries might be offsetting part of the gap created by the domestic consumption slowdown, it doesn’t even get close to filling it. With Chinese steel consumption and production expected to shift into an even lower gear, the amount of iron ore required by Chinese producers going forward is set to keep less and less dwt busy. Muddy waters for Capes.
By Eva Tzima
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 11 September 15
U.S'S WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION WAS ALMOST FLAT PAST WEEK
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 18.6 million shor ...
Thursday, 10 September 15
U.S. H1' 15 STEAM COAL EXPORTS FELL BY 21 PER CENT Y-Y: EIA
Coal Trade
Slower growth in world coal demand, lower international coal prices, and higher coal output in other coal-exporting countries have all ...
Thursday, 10 September 15
INDONESIAN COAL BENCHMARK PRICE HITS A NEW LOW OF $58.21 PER TON
COALspot.com - The Director General of Mineral and Coal of Indonesia once a again revised down Indonesian coal benchmark price to US$ 58.21 per MT ...
Thursday, 10 September 15
IF NOT NOW, WHEN? - GIANNIS ANDRITSOPOULOS
Our industry is well known to be cyclical with some cycles lasting longer than others. Despite the fact that these shifts in the behavior of the fr ...
Wednesday, 09 September 15
FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP LOSE GROUND ON SLOWING DEMAND
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery 4Q 2015 declined month on month and week over week.
The 4Q swap declined $ 1.92 (-4.52%) per t ...
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- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Planning Commission, India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- The University of Queensland
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
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