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Wednesday, 23 September 15
CAPESIZE: SPOT RATES HAVE INCREASED MORE THAN 70 PER CENT DURING LAST WEEK
 Dry Bulk owners, always look at September as the time that the market “signals” what lies ahead for the remainder of the year. The Chinese iron ore restocking that traditionally picks up during Q4, is currently stealing the spotlight. The Capesize summer rally proved to be short-lived, with the average rate for the segment losing most of its gains and settling around $8,000/day. Spot rates have nonetheless increased more than 70% during last week.
Looking at the short term momentum, this appears to be favoring another boost for the big bulkers. Iron ore stockpiles at Chinese ports are currently well below the five year average. The 14% drop in imports that took place in August, has at the same time created an additional “gap” to be filled. The ratio of the present inventory of iron ore over steel production, which is also well below the five-year average, points out to a bigger than usual portion of iron ore stockpiles being consumed by Chinese mills and turned into steel. Despite the fact that domestic steel consumption has been faltering as of last year, production has found support in exports, which are up a whopping 27% in the first 8 months of the year. With low inventories of iron ore, steel production inching up last month, and a very strong trend of steel exports year to date, everything points out to another round of stockpiling and possibly another mini Capesize rally in the way, “mini” being the operative word here.
Although rates appear set to advance further in the following days, I am skeptic in regards to how long positive momentum can be sustained. The reality is that despite the decrease in Chinese iron ore production levels, these are still considerable given the current steel output in the country, setting a limit in imports and consequently the spikes Cape rates enjoy. As steel producers in China turn to higher quality imported iron ore and local iron ore producers exit the market amidst low prices, things certainly move towards the “right” direction but we are hardly there yet.
Additionally and even most importantly, China remains the top steel consuming market worldwide and despite the fact that shipping its steel to India and other SE Asian countries might be offsetting part of the gap created by the domestic consumption slowdown, it doesn’t even get close to filling it. With Chinese steel consumption and production expected to shift into an even lower gear, the amount of iron ore required by Chinese producers going forward is set to keep less and less dwt busy. Muddy waters for Capes.
By Eva Tzima
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 22 September 15
1Q16 FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP DECLINED 6.49 PER CENT M-M
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery 4Q 2015 declined month on month and week over week.
The 4Q swap declined $ 2.29 (-5.42%) per t ...
Tuesday, 22 September 15
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAPS FALL CONTINUES
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery 4Q' 2015 declined week over week and month over month.
The 4Q swap was down US$ ...
Monday, 21 September 15
Q4' 15 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP CLOSED HIGHER THAN Q2' 16 SWAP
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for 4Q’ 2015 delivery increased $0.43 per ton (1.01%) month over month to US$ 42.95 per ton. The ...
Monday, 21 September 15
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP GAINED WEEK OVER WEEK
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for 4Q’ 2015 delivery declined just US$ 0.45 (0.90 %) per ton month over month.
A commodit ...
Monday, 21 September 15
KOMIPO OF KOREA INVITES BIDS FOR BITUMINOUS COAL
COALspot.com: South Korean state-owned utility Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) issued an new tender for 390,000 Metric Tons (MT) of minimum 4,600 kcal ...
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- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Planning Commission, India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- PTC India Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- The University of Queensland
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
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