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Wednesday, 23 September 15
CAPESIZE: SPOT RATES HAVE INCREASED MORE THAN 70 PER CENT DURING LAST WEEK
 Dry Bulk owners, always look at September as the time that the market “signals” what lies ahead for the remainder of the year. The Chinese iron ore restocking that traditionally picks up during Q4, is currently stealing the spotlight. The Capesize summer rally proved to be short-lived, with the average rate for the segment losing most of its gains and settling around $8,000/day. Spot rates have nonetheless increased more than 70% during last week.
Looking at the short term momentum, this appears to be favoring another boost for the big bulkers. Iron ore stockpiles at Chinese ports are currently well below the five year average. The 14% drop in imports that took place in August, has at the same time created an additional “gap” to be filled. The ratio of the present inventory of iron ore over steel production, which is also well below the five-year average, points out to a bigger than usual portion of iron ore stockpiles being consumed by Chinese mills and turned into steel. Despite the fact that domestic steel consumption has been faltering as of last year, production has found support in exports, which are up a whopping 27% in the first 8 months of the year. With low inventories of iron ore, steel production inching up last month, and a very strong trend of steel exports year to date, everything points out to another round of stockpiling and possibly another mini Capesize rally in the way, “mini” being the operative word here.
Although rates appear set to advance further in the following days, I am skeptic in regards to how long positive momentum can be sustained. The reality is that despite the decrease in Chinese iron ore production levels, these are still considerable given the current steel output in the country, setting a limit in imports and consequently the spikes Cape rates enjoy. As steel producers in China turn to higher quality imported iron ore and local iron ore producers exit the market amidst low prices, things certainly move towards the “right” direction but we are hardly there yet.
Additionally and even most importantly, China remains the top steel consuming market worldwide and despite the fact that shipping its steel to India and other SE Asian countries might be offsetting part of the gap created by the domestic consumption slowdown, it doesn’t even get close to filling it. With Chinese steel consumption and production expected to shift into an even lower gear, the amount of iron ore required by Chinese producers going forward is set to keep less and less dwt busy. Muddy waters for Capes.
By Eva Tzima
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 28 September 15
CAPESIZE FLEET INCREASES BY JUST 1 VESSEL DURING LAST 12 MONTHS, IN POSITIVE SIGN FOR DRY BULK SHIPPING MARKET - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
After a rather tumultuous period, the shipping industry and more particular the dry bulk market has started to adjust to the new realities of globa ...
Monday, 28 September 15
Q1'16 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP ROSE 2.73 PER CENT M-M
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for 4Q’ 2015 delivery moved upward US$ 1.45 (3.04 %) per ton month over month.
A commodity ...
Sunday, 27 September 15
THE PANAMAX INDEX FELL 1.19 PCT WEEK OVER WEEK
COALspot.com: The BDI closed Friday (25/09/2015) at 943 points, down by 17 points compared to previous Friday closing (18/09/2015). The BDI wa ...
Friday, 25 September 15
COAL PRODUCTION IN THE U.S. FOR THE WEEK ENDING SEPTEMBER 19 ROSE 2.5% PER CENT W-W
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 17.8 million shor ...
Wednesday, 23 September 15
INDONESIA: NEW REGULATION APPLIES FINAL INCOME TAX TO MINERAL AND COAL SALES - FLORENCE GRACIA SANTOSO
To increase state revenue from the mining sector, the Government of Indonesia has imposed a new final income tax on any sale of mineral and coal, a ...
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- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- The University of Queensland
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
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