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Wednesday, 23 September 15
CAPESIZE: SPOT RATES HAVE INCREASED MORE THAN 70 PER CENT DURING LAST WEEK
 Dry Bulk owners, always look at September as the time that the market “signals” what lies ahead for the remainder of the year. The Chinese iron ore restocking that traditionally picks up during Q4, is currently stealing the spotlight. The Capesize summer rally proved to be short-lived, with the average rate for the segment losing most of its gains and settling around $8,000/day. Spot rates have nonetheless increased more than 70% during last week.
Looking at the short term momentum, this appears to be favoring another boost for the big bulkers. Iron ore stockpiles at Chinese ports are currently well below the five year average. The 14% drop in imports that took place in August, has at the same time created an additional “gap” to be filled. The ratio of the present inventory of iron ore over steel production, which is also well below the five-year average, points out to a bigger than usual portion of iron ore stockpiles being consumed by Chinese mills and turned into steel. Despite the fact that domestic steel consumption has been faltering as of last year, production has found support in exports, which are up a whopping 27% in the first 8 months of the year. With low inventories of iron ore, steel production inching up last month, and a very strong trend of steel exports year to date, everything points out to another round of stockpiling and possibly another mini Capesize rally in the way, “mini” being the operative word here.
Although rates appear set to advance further in the following days, I am skeptic in regards to how long positive momentum can be sustained. The reality is that despite the decrease in Chinese iron ore production levels, these are still considerable given the current steel output in the country, setting a limit in imports and consequently the spikes Cape rates enjoy. As steel producers in China turn to higher quality imported iron ore and local iron ore producers exit the market amidst low prices, things certainly move towards the “right” direction but we are hardly there yet.
Additionally and even most importantly, China remains the top steel consuming market worldwide and despite the fact that shipping its steel to India and other SE Asian countries might be offsetting part of the gap created by the domestic consumption slowdown, it doesn’t even get close to filling it. With Chinese steel consumption and production expected to shift into an even lower gear, the amount of iron ore required by Chinese producers going forward is set to keep less and less dwt busy. Muddy waters for Capes.
By Eva Tzima
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 05 October 15
Q1 & Q2 2016 DELIVERY SWAPS DECLINED M-M AND W-W THIS PAST WEEK
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q4’ 2015 delivery decreased $0.36 per ton (0.85%) month over month to US$ 42.12 per ton. The ...
Monday, 05 October 15
Q1' 16 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP CLOSED US$ 48.05 PER TON
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for 4Q’ 2015 delivery down US$ 0.47 (0.96 %) per ton month over month.
A commodity swap is ...
Monday, 05 October 15
SMALL DECLINE IN 2014 SHIP OPERATING COSTS - MOORE STEPHENS
Total annual operating costs in the shipping industry fell by an average of 0.8% in 2014. This compares with the 0.3% average fall in costs recorde ...
Sunday, 04 October 15
THE INDO-INDIA FREIGHT MARKET REMAINS UNDER PRESSURE
COALspot.com: The BDI closed on Friday (2 Oct 2015) at 889 points, down by 54 points compared to previous Friday's closing ( 24 Sept 2015) of 9 ...
Friday, 02 October 15
COAL PRODUCTION IN THE UNITED STATES DECREASED THIS WEEK - EIA
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 17.5 million shor ...
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- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
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- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
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- Central Electricity Authority - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
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- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
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- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- The University of Queensland
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Planning Commission, India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
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