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Wednesday, 23 September 15
CAPESIZE: SPOT RATES HAVE INCREASED MORE THAN 70 PER CENT DURING LAST WEEK
 Dry Bulk owners, always look at September as the time that the market “signals” what lies ahead for the remainder of the year. The Chinese iron ore restocking that traditionally picks up during Q4, is currently stealing the spotlight. The Capesize summer rally proved to be short-lived, with the average rate for the segment losing most of its gains and settling around $8,000/day. Spot rates have nonetheless increased more than 70% during last week.
Looking at the short term momentum, this appears to be favoring another boost for the big bulkers. Iron ore stockpiles at Chinese ports are currently well below the five year average. The 14% drop in imports that took place in August, has at the same time created an additional “gap” to be filled. The ratio of the present inventory of iron ore over steel production, which is also well below the five-year average, points out to a bigger than usual portion of iron ore stockpiles being consumed by Chinese mills and turned into steel. Despite the fact that domestic steel consumption has been faltering as of last year, production has found support in exports, which are up a whopping 27% in the first 8 months of the year. With low inventories of iron ore, steel production inching up last month, and a very strong trend of steel exports year to date, everything points out to another round of stockpiling and possibly another mini Capesize rally in the way, “mini” being the operative word here.
Although rates appear set to advance further in the following days, I am skeptic in regards to how long positive momentum can be sustained. The reality is that despite the decrease in Chinese iron ore production levels, these are still considerable given the current steel output in the country, setting a limit in imports and consequently the spikes Cape rates enjoy. As steel producers in China turn to higher quality imported iron ore and local iron ore producers exit the market amidst low prices, things certainly move towards the “right” direction but we are hardly there yet.
Additionally and even most importantly, China remains the top steel consuming market worldwide and despite the fact that shipping its steel to India and other SE Asian countries might be offsetting part of the gap created by the domestic consumption slowdown, it doesn’t even get close to filling it. With Chinese steel consumption and production expected to shift into an even lower gear, the amount of iron ore required by Chinese producers going forward is set to keep less and less dwt busy. Muddy waters for Capes.
By Eva Tzima
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Sunday, 18 October 15
THE BDI AND OTHER INDICES CLOSED OFF ON NEGATIVE NOTE THIS FRIDAY
COALspot.com: The BDI closed off on negative note this Friday compared to previous Friday's closing.
The BDI closed this Friday (16 Octobe ...
Friday, 16 October 15
MAJOR REVISION OF NYPE TIME CHAPTER PARTY - BIMCO
Major revision of NYPE time charter party promises to be both balanced and comprehensive
BIMCO has today jointly issued the first revision of ...
Friday, 16 October 15
FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP FOR Q4'15 DELIVERY FLAT WEEK OVER WEEK; DOWN 5.5 PER CENT M-M
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery Q4 2015 declined month on month and flat week over week.
The Q4 swap declined $ 2.23 (-5.51%) ...
Friday, 16 October 15
COAL PRODUCTION IN THE UNITED STATES DECREASED THIS WEEK; DOWN 11.3 PER CENT Y-Y, DOWN 3.5 PERCENT W-W
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 17.1 million shor ...
Friday, 16 October 15
INDONESIA REJOINING OPEC DESPITE BEING A NET IMPORTER OF PETROLEUM - EIA
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) notified Indonesia that it plans to accept the country's request to reactivate its ...
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- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- PTC India Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Planning Commission, India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- White Energy Company Limited
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
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