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Wednesday, 23 September 15
CAPESIZE: SPOT RATES HAVE INCREASED MORE THAN 70 PER CENT DURING LAST WEEK
 Dry Bulk owners, always look at September as the time that the market “signals” what lies ahead for the remainder of the year. The Chinese iron ore restocking that traditionally picks up during Q4, is currently stealing the spotlight. The Capesize summer rally proved to be short-lived, with the average rate for the segment losing most of its gains and settling around $8,000/day. Spot rates have nonetheless increased more than 70% during last week.
Looking at the short term momentum, this appears to be favoring another boost for the big bulkers. Iron ore stockpiles at Chinese ports are currently well below the five year average. The 14% drop in imports that took place in August, has at the same time created an additional “gap” to be filled. The ratio of the present inventory of iron ore over steel production, which is also well below the five-year average, points out to a bigger than usual portion of iron ore stockpiles being consumed by Chinese mills and turned into steel. Despite the fact that domestic steel consumption has been faltering as of last year, production has found support in exports, which are up a whopping 27% in the first 8 months of the year. With low inventories of iron ore, steel production inching up last month, and a very strong trend of steel exports year to date, everything points out to another round of stockpiling and possibly another mini Capesize rally in the way, “mini” being the operative word here.
Although rates appear set to advance further in the following days, I am skeptic in regards to how long positive momentum can be sustained. The reality is that despite the decrease in Chinese iron ore production levels, these are still considerable given the current steel output in the country, setting a limit in imports and consequently the spikes Cape rates enjoy. As steel producers in China turn to higher quality imported iron ore and local iron ore producers exit the market amidst low prices, things certainly move towards the “right” direction but we are hardly there yet.
Additionally and even most importantly, China remains the top steel consuming market worldwide and despite the fact that shipping its steel to India and other SE Asian countries might be offsetting part of the gap created by the domestic consumption slowdown, it doesn’t even get close to filling it. With Chinese steel consumption and production expected to shift into an even lower gear, the amount of iron ore required by Chinese producers going forward is set to keep less and less dwt busy. Muddy waters for Capes.
By Eva Tzima
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 20 October 15
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAPS SINK INTO RED THIS PAST WEEK
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q4' 2015 declined week over week and month over month.
The Q4 swap was down US$ ...
Tuesday, 20 October 15
API 5 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP CLOSED NEGATIVE
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q4’ 2015 delivery decreased $1.23 per ton (2.86%) month over month to US$ 41.80 per ton. The ...
Monday, 19 October 15
RUSSIA MAJOR COAL MINER KRU CUTS 4.5 MLN T/YR "UNPROFITABLE" EURO SALES - JACQUELINE HOLMES
COALspot.com: Kuzbassrazrezugol (KRU), one of Russia's largest producers of high-quality coal, plans to cut its coal exports in 2016 by about 4 ...
Monday, 19 October 15
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP CLOSED AT $48.68 PER TON
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for 4Q’ 2015 delivery down just US cents 55 (1.12 %) per ton month over month.
A commodity ...
Monday, 19 October 15
KOMIPO SEEKS 1.28 MILLION T/Y COAL FOR DEC 2015 - Q2 2016
COALspot.com: South Korean state-owned utility Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) issued an new tender for 1,280,000 Metric Tons (MT) of minimum 4,600 kc ...
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- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- White Energy Company Limited
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- PTC India Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- The University of Queensland
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Australian Coal Association
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
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