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Wednesday, 23 September 15
CAPESIZE: SPOT RATES HAVE INCREASED MORE THAN 70 PER CENT DURING LAST WEEK
 Dry Bulk owners, always look at September as the time that the market “signals” what lies ahead for the remainder of the year. The Chinese iron ore restocking that traditionally picks up during Q4, is currently stealing the spotlight. The Capesize summer rally proved to be short-lived, with the average rate for the segment losing most of its gains and settling around $8,000/day. Spot rates have nonetheless increased more than 70% during last week.
Looking at the short term momentum, this appears to be favoring another boost for the big bulkers. Iron ore stockpiles at Chinese ports are currently well below the five year average. The 14% drop in imports that took place in August, has at the same time created an additional “gap” to be filled. The ratio of the present inventory of iron ore over steel production, which is also well below the five-year average, points out to a bigger than usual portion of iron ore stockpiles being consumed by Chinese mills and turned into steel. Despite the fact that domestic steel consumption has been faltering as of last year, production has found support in exports, which are up a whopping 27% in the first 8 months of the year. With low inventories of iron ore, steel production inching up last month, and a very strong trend of steel exports year to date, everything points out to another round of stockpiling and possibly another mini Capesize rally in the way, “mini” being the operative word here.
Although rates appear set to advance further in the following days, I am skeptic in regards to how long positive momentum can be sustained. The reality is that despite the decrease in Chinese iron ore production levels, these are still considerable given the current steel output in the country, setting a limit in imports and consequently the spikes Cape rates enjoy. As steel producers in China turn to higher quality imported iron ore and local iron ore producers exit the market amidst low prices, things certainly move towards the “right” direction but we are hardly there yet.
Additionally and even most importantly, China remains the top steel consuming market worldwide and despite the fact that shipping its steel to India and other SE Asian countries might be offsetting part of the gap created by the domestic consumption slowdown, it doesn’t even get close to filling it. With Chinese steel consumption and production expected to shift into an even lower gear, the amount of iron ore required by Chinese producers going forward is set to keep less and less dwt busy. Muddy waters for Capes.
By Eva Tzima
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 15 October 15
INDONESIA COAL PRICE REFERENCE FALLS FOR SEVEN STRAIGHT MONTH IN OCTOBER
COALspot.com - The Director General of Mineral and Coal of Indonesia once a again revised down Indonesian coal benchmark price this month.
The ...
Thursday, 15 October 15
Q1' 16 FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAP ADVANCED 2 PER CENT WEEK OVER WEEK
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q4' 2015 gain week over week and declined month over month.
The Q4 swap was dow ...
Tuesday, 13 October 15
DRY BULK SHIPPING FLEET NET EXPANSION WAS 1.3% DURING THIRD QUARTER, BUT ORDERBOOK REDUCED TO 17% OF THE TRADING FLEET
If the dry bulk market is to rebound on a sustainable level, it needs to limit the tonnage expansion, at least until demand picks up again, as Chin ...
Tuesday, 13 October 15
FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP DECLINED 2 PER CENT MONTH OVER MONTH
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q4’ 2015 delivery decreased $0.46 per ton (1.08%) month over month to US$ 42.17 per ton. The ...
Monday, 12 October 15
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS GAIN W-W; SLIGHTLY DOWN M-M
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for 4Q’ 2015 delivery down just US cents 3 (0.06 %) per ton month over month.
A commodity ...
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- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- PTC India Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
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