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Wednesday, 23 September 15
CAPESIZE: SPOT RATES HAVE INCREASED MORE THAN 70 PER CENT DURING LAST WEEK
 Dry Bulk owners, always look at September as the time that the market “signals” what lies ahead for the remainder of the year. The Chinese iron ore restocking that traditionally picks up during Q4, is currently stealing the spotlight. The Capesize summer rally proved to be short-lived, with the average rate for the segment losing most of its gains and settling around $8,000/day. Spot rates have nonetheless increased more than 70% during last week.
Looking at the short term momentum, this appears to be favoring another boost for the big bulkers. Iron ore stockpiles at Chinese ports are currently well below the five year average. The 14% drop in imports that took place in August, has at the same time created an additional “gap” to be filled. The ratio of the present inventory of iron ore over steel production, which is also well below the five-year average, points out to a bigger than usual portion of iron ore stockpiles being consumed by Chinese mills and turned into steel. Despite the fact that domestic steel consumption has been faltering as of last year, production has found support in exports, which are up a whopping 27% in the first 8 months of the year. With low inventories of iron ore, steel production inching up last month, and a very strong trend of steel exports year to date, everything points out to another round of stockpiling and possibly another mini Capesize rally in the way, “mini” being the operative word here.
Although rates appear set to advance further in the following days, I am skeptic in regards to how long positive momentum can be sustained. The reality is that despite the decrease in Chinese iron ore production levels, these are still considerable given the current steel output in the country, setting a limit in imports and consequently the spikes Cape rates enjoy. As steel producers in China turn to higher quality imported iron ore and local iron ore producers exit the market amidst low prices, things certainly move towards the “right” direction but we are hardly there yet.
Additionally and even most importantly, China remains the top steel consuming market worldwide and despite the fact that shipping its steel to India and other SE Asian countries might be offsetting part of the gap created by the domestic consumption slowdown, it doesn’t even get close to filling it. With Chinese steel consumption and production expected to shift into an even lower gear, the amount of iron ore required by Chinese producers going forward is set to keep less and less dwt busy. Muddy waters for Capes.
By Eva Tzima
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 21 October 15
RUSSIA'S CARBO ONE COAL SALES TO HIT 50 MLN T/YR - JACQUELINE HOLMES
COALspot.com: Russia's Carbo One has become one of the world's leading physical coal traders with an annual volume approaching 50 million t ...
Wednesday, 21 October 15
MARKET INSIGHT - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
In today’s dry bulk market, both freight rates and asset prices are creating mixed feelings to seasoned ship owners, who tend to instinctivel ...
Wednesday, 21 October 15
INDONESIAN COAL MINER BUKIT ASAM POSTS POSITIVE PERFORMANCE DURING FIRST THREE QUARTERS OF 2015
COALspot.com: Indonesian publicly listed and state controlled coal miner PT. Bukit Asam has announced that, the company’s coal sales up 8 per ...
Wednesday, 21 October 15
LOWER DEMAND HIT Q1' 16 INDONESIA COAL SWAPS
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery Q4 2015 declined month on month and week over week.
The Q4 swap declined $ 1.88 (-4.71%) per t ...
Tuesday, 20 October 15
SHIPBROKER SEES CAPESIZE RATES EASILY REACHING $25,000/DAY BY YEAR-END : NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The future course of the dry bulk market has been troubling market participants for quite some time now, as the “elusive” freight rate ...
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- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- White Energy Company Limited
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Planning Commission, India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- The University of Queensland
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Minerals Council of Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- PTC India Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
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