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Wednesday, 23 September 15
CAPESIZE: SPOT RATES HAVE INCREASED MORE THAN 70 PER CENT DURING LAST WEEK
 Dry Bulk owners, always look at September as the time that the market “signals” what lies ahead for the remainder of the year. The Chinese iron ore restocking that traditionally picks up during Q4, is currently stealing the spotlight. The Capesize summer rally proved to be short-lived, with the average rate for the segment losing most of its gains and settling around $8,000/day. Spot rates have nonetheless increased more than 70% during last week.
Looking at the short term momentum, this appears to be favoring another boost for the big bulkers. Iron ore stockpiles at Chinese ports are currently well below the five year average. The 14% drop in imports that took place in August, has at the same time created an additional “gap” to be filled. The ratio of the present inventory of iron ore over steel production, which is also well below the five-year average, points out to a bigger than usual portion of iron ore stockpiles being consumed by Chinese mills and turned into steel. Despite the fact that domestic steel consumption has been faltering as of last year, production has found support in exports, which are up a whopping 27% in the first 8 months of the year. With low inventories of iron ore, steel production inching up last month, and a very strong trend of steel exports year to date, everything points out to another round of stockpiling and possibly another mini Capesize rally in the way, “mini” being the operative word here.
Although rates appear set to advance further in the following days, I am skeptic in regards to how long positive momentum can be sustained. The reality is that despite the decrease in Chinese iron ore production levels, these are still considerable given the current steel output in the country, setting a limit in imports and consequently the spikes Cape rates enjoy. As steel producers in China turn to higher quality imported iron ore and local iron ore producers exit the market amidst low prices, things certainly move towards the “right” direction but we are hardly there yet.
Additionally and even most importantly, China remains the top steel consuming market worldwide and despite the fact that shipping its steel to India and other SE Asian countries might be offsetting part of the gap created by the domestic consumption slowdown, it doesn’t even get close to filling it. With Chinese steel consumption and production expected to shift into an even lower gear, the amount of iron ore required by Chinese producers going forward is set to keep less and less dwt busy. Muddy waters for Capes.
By Eva Tzima
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 12 October 15
DRY BULK SHIPPING: MARKETS ARE SLOWLY IMPROVING FROM A VERY LOW LEVEL AS THE DEMAND SIDE FALTERS - HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The dry bulk market is in the midst of a shift in demand patterns, which coupled with a tonnage supply overhang, has been facing headwinds over the ...
Monday, 12 October 15
BDI WEIGHED DOWN BY CAPE
COALspot.com: The BDI (Baltic Dry Index) has come back down again this week. The BDI is a benchmark index used to assess the overall cost of moving ...
Sunday, 11 October 15
TANKER SHIPPING: MORE OPTIMISM IN SIGHT FOR TANKERS IN THE WINTER SEASON - BIMCO
Demand:
2015 has been the year of the tanker. The fundamental improvements with slow supply-side growth for some years coupled with low oil pri ...
Friday, 09 October 15
US WEEKLY COAL OUTPUT UP 1.2 PERCENT TO 17.7 MMST
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 17.7 million shor ...
Thursday, 08 October 15
CAPESIZE: MOST PEOPLE AGREE A SPIKE IN RATES WILL HAPPEN; WHEN, HOW LONG AND HOW SUBSTANTIAL? - FEARNLEYS
Cape
Depressives start of the fourth quarter, with c3 approaching USD 12 pmt and c5 presently in the mind 5's. According to Fearnleys ship br ...
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- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Australian Coal Association
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- The University of Queensland
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
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