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Wednesday, 23 September 15
CAPESIZE: SPOT RATES HAVE INCREASED MORE THAN 70 PER CENT DURING LAST WEEK
 Dry Bulk owners, always look at September as the time that the market “signals” what lies ahead for the remainder of the year. The Chinese iron ore restocking that traditionally picks up during Q4, is currently stealing the spotlight. The Capesize summer rally proved to be short-lived, with the average rate for the segment losing most of its gains and settling around $8,000/day. Spot rates have nonetheless increased more than 70% during last week.
Looking at the short term momentum, this appears to be favoring another boost for the big bulkers. Iron ore stockpiles at Chinese ports are currently well below the five year average. The 14% drop in imports that took place in August, has at the same time created an additional “gap” to be filled. The ratio of the present inventory of iron ore over steel production, which is also well below the five-year average, points out to a bigger than usual portion of iron ore stockpiles being consumed by Chinese mills and turned into steel. Despite the fact that domestic steel consumption has been faltering as of last year, production has found support in exports, which are up a whopping 27% in the first 8 months of the year. With low inventories of iron ore, steel production inching up last month, and a very strong trend of steel exports year to date, everything points out to another round of stockpiling and possibly another mini Capesize rally in the way, “mini” being the operative word here.
Although rates appear set to advance further in the following days, I am skeptic in regards to how long positive momentum can be sustained. The reality is that despite the decrease in Chinese iron ore production levels, these are still considerable given the current steel output in the country, setting a limit in imports and consequently the spikes Cape rates enjoy. As steel producers in China turn to higher quality imported iron ore and local iron ore producers exit the market amidst low prices, things certainly move towards the “right” direction but we are hardly there yet.
Additionally and even most importantly, China remains the top steel consuming market worldwide and despite the fact that shipping its steel to India and other SE Asian countries might be offsetting part of the gap created by the domestic consumption slowdown, it doesn’t even get close to filling it. With Chinese steel consumption and production expected to shift into an even lower gear, the amount of iron ore required by Chinese producers going forward is set to keep less and less dwt busy. Muddy waters for Capes.
By Eva Tzima
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 26 October 15
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS CLOSE DOWN 4.3% AS DEMAND CONCERNS WEIGH
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for 4Q’ 2015 delivery down just US$ 1.48 (3.02 %) per ton month over month.
A commodity sw ...
Sunday, 25 October 15
ANOTHER DISAPPOINTING WEEK FOR PANAMAX; INDEX FELL 5.4 PERCENT W-W
COALspot.com: The BDI was slightly up by 2.65 pct closing at 774 points mainly because of Cape index which was up by 10.85 pct closing at 1461 poin ...
Sunday, 25 October 15
DRY BULK SHIP OWNERS ARE LOOKING TO CHINA'S POLICIES FOR CUES ON FUTURE MARKET DEMAND - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
China’s hard or softer landing is a thing which has troubled dry bulk shipping for a couple of years now, as owners have been hit by the coun ...
Friday, 23 October 15
WILL INDIAN DOMESTIC COAL PRICES BE ABLE TO COMPETE IMPORTED COAL PRICES IF THE CURRENT TREND CONTINUES?
COALspot.com: The Most of the Indian end-users are waiting for last minute purchase to enjoy every drop in price. Coal procurement managers are als ...
Friday, 23 October 15
COAL PRODUCTION IN THE U.S. FOR THE WEEK ENDING OCTOBER 17 DECLINED FOR THE SECOND STRAIGHT WEEK
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 16.6 million shor ...
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- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- White Energy Company Limited
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- PTC India Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
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