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Wednesday, 23 September 15
CAPESIZE: SPOT RATES HAVE INCREASED MORE THAN 70 PER CENT DURING LAST WEEK
 Dry Bulk owners, always look at September as the time that the market “signals” what lies ahead for the remainder of the year. The Chinese iron ore restocking that traditionally picks up during Q4, is currently stealing the spotlight. The Capesize summer rally proved to be short-lived, with the average rate for the segment losing most of its gains and settling around $8,000/day. Spot rates have nonetheless increased more than 70% during last week.
Looking at the short term momentum, this appears to be favoring another boost for the big bulkers. Iron ore stockpiles at Chinese ports are currently well below the five year average. The 14% drop in imports that took place in August, has at the same time created an additional “gap” to be filled. The ratio of the present inventory of iron ore over steel production, which is also well below the five-year average, points out to a bigger than usual portion of iron ore stockpiles being consumed by Chinese mills and turned into steel. Despite the fact that domestic steel consumption has been faltering as of last year, production has found support in exports, which are up a whopping 27% in the first 8 months of the year. With low inventories of iron ore, steel production inching up last month, and a very strong trend of steel exports year to date, everything points out to another round of stockpiling and possibly another mini Capesize rally in the way, “mini” being the operative word here.
Although rates appear set to advance further in the following days, I am skeptic in regards to how long positive momentum can be sustained. The reality is that despite the decrease in Chinese iron ore production levels, these are still considerable given the current steel output in the country, setting a limit in imports and consequently the spikes Cape rates enjoy. As steel producers in China turn to higher quality imported iron ore and local iron ore producers exit the market amidst low prices, things certainly move towards the “right” direction but we are hardly there yet.
Additionally and even most importantly, China remains the top steel consuming market worldwide and despite the fact that shipping its steel to India and other SE Asian countries might be offsetting part of the gap created by the domestic consumption slowdown, it doesn’t even get close to filling it. With Chinese steel consumption and production expected to shift into an even lower gear, the amount of iron ore required by Chinese producers going forward is set to keep less and less dwt busy. Muddy waters for Capes.
By Eva Tzima
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 29 October 15
Q2' 16 FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP CLOSED US$ 37.40 PER TON; DECLINED 5.56 PER CENT M-M
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery Q4 2015 declined month on month and week over week.
The Q4 swap declined $ 2.13 (-5.34%) per t ...
Wednesday, 28 October 15
Q2'16 FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAP SEES FURTHER DECLINES
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q4' 2015 gained week over week and declined month over month.
The Q4 swap was d ...
Wednesday, 28 October 15
BDI INCREASE TOOK PLACE SOLELY ON THE BACK OF CAPESIZE PERFORMANCE, BUT........ - INTERMODAL
COALspot.com: The Dry Bulk market closed off the week noting a small improvement which nonetheless failed to lift sentiment, not only because ...
Tuesday, 27 October 15
Q1'16 API 5 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP DECLINE 6 PER CENT M-M
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q4’ 2015 delivery decreased $2 per ton (4.66%) month over month to US$ 40.93 per ton. The swa ...
Monday, 26 October 15
PORT OF NEWCASTLE SHIPPED 10.5 PER CENT LESS COAL IN SEPTEMBER, COMPARED TO AUGUST LOADING
COALspot.com: The Port of Newcastle, Australia’s major trading ports and the world’s largest coal export port, has shipped $1.161 billi ...
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- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- The University of Queensland
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Economic Council, Georgia
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