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Wednesday, 23 September 15
CAPESIZE: SPOT RATES HAVE INCREASED MORE THAN 70 PER CENT DURING LAST WEEK
 Dry Bulk owners, always look at September as the time that the market “signals” what lies ahead for the remainder of the year. The Chinese iron ore restocking that traditionally picks up during Q4, is currently stealing the spotlight. The Capesize summer rally proved to be short-lived, with the average rate for the segment losing most of its gains and settling around $8,000/day. Spot rates have nonetheless increased more than 70% during last week.
Looking at the short term momentum, this appears to be favoring another boost for the big bulkers. Iron ore stockpiles at Chinese ports are currently well below the five year average. The 14% drop in imports that took place in August, has at the same time created an additional “gap” to be filled. The ratio of the present inventory of iron ore over steel production, which is also well below the five-year average, points out to a bigger than usual portion of iron ore stockpiles being consumed by Chinese mills and turned into steel. Despite the fact that domestic steel consumption has been faltering as of last year, production has found support in exports, which are up a whopping 27% in the first 8 months of the year. With low inventories of iron ore, steel production inching up last month, and a very strong trend of steel exports year to date, everything points out to another round of stockpiling and possibly another mini Capesize rally in the way, “mini” being the operative word here.
Although rates appear set to advance further in the following days, I am skeptic in regards to how long positive momentum can be sustained. The reality is that despite the decrease in Chinese iron ore production levels, these are still considerable given the current steel output in the country, setting a limit in imports and consequently the spikes Cape rates enjoy. As steel producers in China turn to higher quality imported iron ore and local iron ore producers exit the market amidst low prices, things certainly move towards the “right” direction but we are hardly there yet.
Additionally and even most importantly, China remains the top steel consuming market worldwide and despite the fact that shipping its steel to India and other SE Asian countries might be offsetting part of the gap created by the domestic consumption slowdown, it doesn’t even get close to filling it. With Chinese steel consumption and production expected to shift into an even lower gear, the amount of iron ore required by Chinese producers going forward is set to keep less and less dwt busy. Muddy waters for Capes.
By Eva Tzima
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Saturday, 31 October 15
ADARO ENERGY'S CORE EARNINGS DECLINE 21 PER CENT FOR THE NINE MONTHS PERIOD TO SEPTEMBER 2015
COALspot.com: Adaro Energy's core earnings decline 21% to US$228 Million for first 9months of this year compared to the same period last year. ...
Friday, 30 October 15
INDONESIA'S COAL EXPORTS DROP ON LOW PRICES - THE JAKARTA POST
Indonesia's coal exports significantly dropped in the first nine months of the year as coal companies continued to suffer from low prices in ad ...
Friday, 30 October 15
CHINESE MINERAL IMPORTS: MOVING ON FROM INDONESIA? - CLARKSONS
China has accounted for almost 90% of global imports of nickel ore and bauxite in recent years and was therefore heavily hit by the Indonesian mine ...
Friday, 30 October 15
COAL PRODUCTION IN THE UNITED STATES INCREASED THIS WEEK - EIA
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 17.5 million shor ...
Thursday, 29 October 15
IRAN'S RETURN TO OIL MARKETS WILL HAVE TEMPERED IMPACT FOR THE TANKER SHIPPING INDUSTRY - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
While many analysts appear to be fearful of a potential incremental rise in tanker ships’ supply, as a result of the imminent return of Iran ...
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- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Australian Coal Association
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- White Energy Company Limited
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Planning Commission, India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Minerals Council of Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- The University of Queensland
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
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