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Wednesday, 23 September 15
CAPESIZE: SPOT RATES HAVE INCREASED MORE THAN 70 PER CENT DURING LAST WEEK
 Dry Bulk owners, always look at September as the time that the market “signals” what lies ahead for the remainder of the year. The Chinese iron ore restocking that traditionally picks up during Q4, is currently stealing the spotlight. The Capesize summer rally proved to be short-lived, with the average rate for the segment losing most of its gains and settling around $8,000/day. Spot rates have nonetheless increased more than 70% during last week.
Looking at the short term momentum, this appears to be favoring another boost for the big bulkers. Iron ore stockpiles at Chinese ports are currently well below the five year average. The 14% drop in imports that took place in August, has at the same time created an additional “gap” to be filled. The ratio of the present inventory of iron ore over steel production, which is also well below the five-year average, points out to a bigger than usual portion of iron ore stockpiles being consumed by Chinese mills and turned into steel. Despite the fact that domestic steel consumption has been faltering as of last year, production has found support in exports, which are up a whopping 27% in the first 8 months of the year. With low inventories of iron ore, steel production inching up last month, and a very strong trend of steel exports year to date, everything points out to another round of stockpiling and possibly another mini Capesize rally in the way, “mini” being the operative word here.
Although rates appear set to advance further in the following days, I am skeptic in regards to how long positive momentum can be sustained. The reality is that despite the decrease in Chinese iron ore production levels, these are still considerable given the current steel output in the country, setting a limit in imports and consequently the spikes Cape rates enjoy. As steel producers in China turn to higher quality imported iron ore and local iron ore producers exit the market amidst low prices, things certainly move towards the “right” direction but we are hardly there yet.
Additionally and even most importantly, China remains the top steel consuming market worldwide and despite the fact that shipping its steel to India and other SE Asian countries might be offsetting part of the gap created by the domestic consumption slowdown, it doesn’t even get close to filling it. With Chinese steel consumption and production expected to shift into an even lower gear, the amount of iron ore required by Chinese producers going forward is set to keep less and less dwt busy. Muddy waters for Capes.
By Eva Tzima
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 03 November 15
API 5 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAPS DECLINE CONTINUES
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q4’ 2015 delivery slid $1.84 per ton (4.34%) month over month to US$ 40.54 per ton. The swap ...
Tuesday, 03 November 15
EU OIL MAJORS FACE FURTHER EARNINGS DECLINE IN Q415 - FITCH RATINGS
The sharp drop in major European oil companies' third-quarter profits is likely to be extended in the fourth quarter as refining margins, which ...
Monday, 02 November 15
DESPITE CHALLENGING MARKET CONDITIONS, ADARO LOWERS COSTS, DEBT AND DELIVERS STRONG FREE CASH FLOW
COALspot.com: Despite challenging market conditions, Adaro lowers costs, lowers debt and delivers strong free cash flow.
The Indonesia’s ...
Monday, 02 November 15
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS CLOSED ON A WEAK NOTE
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for 4Q’ 2015 delivery declined US$ 1.81(3.71 %) per ton month over month.
A commodity swap ...
Sunday, 01 November 15
THE FREIGHT MARKET SENTIMENT REMAINS WEAK
This week’s freight market sentiment remains weak compared to last week.
The Baltic Dry Index (BDI), an economic indicator issued daily ...
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- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Australian Coal Association
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- MS Steel International - UAE
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- VISA Power Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
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