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Wednesday, 23 September 15
CAPESIZE: SPOT RATES HAVE INCREASED MORE THAN 70 PER CENT DURING LAST WEEK
 Dry Bulk owners, always look at September as the time that the market “signals” what lies ahead for the remainder of the year. The Chinese iron ore restocking that traditionally picks up during Q4, is currently stealing the spotlight. The Capesize summer rally proved to be short-lived, with the average rate for the segment losing most of its gains and settling around $8,000/day. Spot rates have nonetheless increased more than 70% during last week.
Looking at the short term momentum, this appears to be favoring another boost for the big bulkers. Iron ore stockpiles at Chinese ports are currently well below the five year average. The 14% drop in imports that took place in August, has at the same time created an additional “gap” to be filled. The ratio of the present inventory of iron ore over steel production, which is also well below the five-year average, points out to a bigger than usual portion of iron ore stockpiles being consumed by Chinese mills and turned into steel. Despite the fact that domestic steel consumption has been faltering as of last year, production has found support in exports, which are up a whopping 27% in the first 8 months of the year. With low inventories of iron ore, steel production inching up last month, and a very strong trend of steel exports year to date, everything points out to another round of stockpiling and possibly another mini Capesize rally in the way, “mini” being the operative word here.
Although rates appear set to advance further in the following days, I am skeptic in regards to how long positive momentum can be sustained. The reality is that despite the decrease in Chinese iron ore production levels, these are still considerable given the current steel output in the country, setting a limit in imports and consequently the spikes Cape rates enjoy. As steel producers in China turn to higher quality imported iron ore and local iron ore producers exit the market amidst low prices, things certainly move towards the “right” direction but we are hardly there yet.
Additionally and even most importantly, China remains the top steel consuming market worldwide and despite the fact that shipping its steel to India and other SE Asian countries might be offsetting part of the gap created by the domestic consumption slowdown, it doesn’t even get close to filling it. With Chinese steel consumption and production expected to shift into an even lower gear, the amount of iron ore required by Chinese producers going forward is set to keep less and less dwt busy. Muddy waters for Capes.
By Eva Tzima
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 05 November 15
Q2'16 INDO THERMAL COAL SWAP CONTRACT FOB INDONESIA FALLS TO $39.90/T
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery Q4 2015 declined month on month and week over week. Price of coal seen no improvements this past we ...
Thursday, 05 November 15
INFORMATION EXCHANGE GROUP'S LATAM MINING SECURITY SUMMIT 2016 - INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE ON TECHNOLOGY SECURITY IN MINING
Press Release: LATAM Mining Security Summit 2016 is a carefully designed event that will bring together the leading stakeholders in the mining sect ...
Wednesday, 04 November 15
MARKET INSIGHT - CHRISTOPHER THOMAS WHITTY
Four companies dominate global iron ore production, namely; BHP Billiton, Vale, Rio Tinto, and Fortescue Metals Group. Together these companies con ...
Wednesday, 04 November 15
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAPS GAIN W-W AND M-M
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q4' 2015 gained week over week and month over month.
The Q4 swap was up US$ 1.4 ...
Tuesday, 03 November 15
THE DISCHARGE OF CARGO IN THE PRC WITHOUT ORIGINAL BILLS OF LADING - CLYDE&CO
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
On occasions, a vessel may arrive at a port and be ready to discharge but the original bills of lading in respect of the ...
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- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Economic Council, Georgia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
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- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
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