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Wednesday, 23 September 15
CAPESIZE: SPOT RATES HAVE INCREASED MORE THAN 70 PER CENT DURING LAST WEEK
 Dry Bulk owners, always look at September as the time that the market “signals” what lies ahead for the remainder of the year. The Chinese iron ore restocking that traditionally picks up during Q4, is currently stealing the spotlight. The Capesize summer rally proved to be short-lived, with the average rate for the segment losing most of its gains and settling around $8,000/day. Spot rates have nonetheless increased more than 70% during last week.
Looking at the short term momentum, this appears to be favoring another boost for the big bulkers. Iron ore stockpiles at Chinese ports are currently well below the five year average. The 14% drop in imports that took place in August, has at the same time created an additional “gap” to be filled. The ratio of the present inventory of iron ore over steel production, which is also well below the five-year average, points out to a bigger than usual portion of iron ore stockpiles being consumed by Chinese mills and turned into steel. Despite the fact that domestic steel consumption has been faltering as of last year, production has found support in exports, which are up a whopping 27% in the first 8 months of the year. With low inventories of iron ore, steel production inching up last month, and a very strong trend of steel exports year to date, everything points out to another round of stockpiling and possibly another mini Capesize rally in the way, “mini” being the operative word here.
Although rates appear set to advance further in the following days, I am skeptic in regards to how long positive momentum can be sustained. The reality is that despite the decrease in Chinese iron ore production levels, these are still considerable given the current steel output in the country, setting a limit in imports and consequently the spikes Cape rates enjoy. As steel producers in China turn to higher quality imported iron ore and local iron ore producers exit the market amidst low prices, things certainly move towards the “right” direction but we are hardly there yet.
Additionally and even most importantly, China remains the top steel consuming market worldwide and despite the fact that shipping its steel to India and other SE Asian countries might be offsetting part of the gap created by the domestic consumption slowdown, it doesn’t even get close to filling it. With Chinese steel consumption and production expected to shift into an even lower gear, the amount of iron ore required by Chinese producers going forward is set to keep less and less dwt busy. Muddy waters for Capes.
By Eva Tzima
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 09 November 15
CFR SOUTH CHINA THERMAL COAL SWAP FOR Q3' 16 CONTRACT DECLINED US$ 4 PER TON
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q1’ 2016 delivery declined US$ 4.35 (9.03 %) per ton month over month.
A commodity swa ...
Monday, 09 November 15
INDIAN THERMAL COAL IMPORTS SURGED 18%; COKING COAL 6.31% DURING APRIL-OCTOBER: BUSINESS-STANDARD
Indian thermal coal imports surged 18% at the country's top 12 major ports to 55.90 million tonnes (MT) in the first seven months of the curren ...
Sunday, 08 November 15
THE FREIGHT MARKET KEEP DROPPING THIS WEEK - VISTAAR
COALspot.com: The freight market keep dropping this week.
The BDI down 12.48 percent week on week and closed at 631 points on 6 November 2015. ...
Sunday, 08 November 15
CAPESIZE FREIGHT RATES IN AUSTRALIA-CHINA ROUTES OVER 50% CHEAPER THAN BRAZIL-CHINA ROUTE - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
China’s mining and steel industries are facing tectonic shifts over the past couple of years, with the country’s limiting of coal use, ...
Friday, 06 November 15
COAL PRODUCTION IN THE U.S. FELL SHARPLY FOR THE WEEK ENDING OCTOBER 31
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 16.6 million shor ...
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- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Australian Coal Association
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Planning Commission, India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
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